playoffs · week 9's forecast · 10,000 simulated seasons

The playoff machine

Pick the winner of any remaining game, or who beats the weekly median, and see how every team's playoff and title odds change. Nothing is re-simulated: each number is the share of the forecast's 10,000 simulated seasons in which your picks happened.

Favourites win week 9 Upsets everywhere in week 9 Quantum Ferrets wins out

The odds across all 10,000 simulated seasons, ± one standard error. Pick results to see how they change.

Team	Playoffs	Title	Seed 1	2	3	4
RPRocket Pandas controls its destiny	95.7% ± 0.20	26.0% ± 0.44	40%	28%	18%	10%
TLTurbo Llamas controls its destiny	92.5% ± 0.26	22.4% ± 0.42	28%	29%	22%	13%
NWNeon Walruses controls its destiny	89.7% ± 0.30	25.5% ± 0.44	25%	25%	24%	16%
QFQuantum Ferrets controls its destiny	66.1% ± 0.47	14.2% ± 0.35	6%	12%	20%	27%
CBCosmic Badgers	40.2% ± 0.49	9.0% ± 0.29	1%	5%	12%	23%
PYPolar Yetis	7.8% ± 0.27	2.0% ± 0.14	0%	0%	2%	6%
IWIron Wombats	7.0% ± 0.25	0.9% ± 0.09	0%	0%	1%	5%
CMCrimson Marmots	1.0% ± 0.10	0.1% ± 0.02	0%	0%	0%	1%

Pick results

Week 9 this week

Neon Walruses vs Crimson Marmots: Neon Walruses wins 72% of seasons Neon Walruses either Crimson Marmots

Rocket Pandas vs Iron Wombats: Rocket Pandas wins 61% of seasons Rocket Pandas either Iron Wombats

Turbo Llamas vs Polar Yetis: Turbo Llamas wins 52% of seasons Turbo Llamas either Polar Yetis

Cosmic Badgers vs Quantum Ferrets: Cosmic Badgers wins 54% of seasons Cosmic Badgers either Quantum Ferrets

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Week 10

Neon Walruses vs Cosmic Badgers: Neon Walruses wins 55% of seasons Neon Walruses either Cosmic Badgers

Rocket Pandas vs Polar Yetis: Rocket Pandas wins 59% of seasons Rocket Pandas either Polar Yetis

Turbo Llamas vs Crimson Marmots: Turbo Llamas wins 60% of seasons Turbo Llamas either Crimson Marmots

Quantum Ferrets vs Iron Wombats: Quantum Ferrets wins 57% of seasons Quantum Ferrets either Iron Wombats

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Week 11

Neon Walruses vs Iron Wombats: Neon Walruses wins 79% of seasons Neon Walruses either Iron Wombats

Rocket Pandas vs Quantum Ferrets: Rocket Pandas wins 52% of seasons Rocket Pandas either Quantum Ferrets

Turbo Llamas vs Cosmic Badgers: Turbo Llamas wins 35% of seasons Turbo Llamas either Cosmic Badgers

Polar Yetis vs Crimson Marmots: Polar Yetis wins 65% of seasons Polar Yetis either Crimson Marmots

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Week 12

Neon Walruses vs Quantum Ferrets: Neon Walruses wins 51% of seasons Neon Walruses either Quantum Ferrets

Rocket Pandas vs Crimson Marmots: Rocket Pandas wins 69% of seasons Rocket Pandas either Crimson Marmots

Turbo Llamas vs Iron Wombats: Turbo Llamas wins 70% of seasons Turbo Llamas either Iron Wombats

Cosmic Badgers vs Polar Yetis: Cosmic Badgers wins 56% of seasons Cosmic Badgers either Polar Yetis

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Week 13

Neon Walruses vs Rocket Pandas: Neon Walruses wins 49% of seasons Neon Walruses either Rocket Pandas

Turbo Llamas vs Quantum Ferrets: Turbo Llamas wins 60% of seasons Turbo Llamas either Quantum Ferrets

Cosmic Badgers vs Crimson Marmots: Cosmic Badgers wins 70% of seasons Cosmic Badgers either Crimson Marmots

Polar Yetis vs Iron Wombats: Polar Yetis wins 73% of seasons Polar Yetis either Iron Wombats

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Week 14

Neon Walruses vs Turbo Llamas: Neon Walruses wins 48% of seasons Neon Walruses either Turbo Llamas

Rocket Pandas vs Cosmic Badgers: Rocket Pandas wins 63% of seasons Rocket Pandas either Cosmic Badgers

Polar Yetis vs Quantum Ferrets: Polar Yetis wins 56% of seasons Polar Yetis either Quantum Ferrets

Iron Wombats vs Crimson Marmots: Iron Wombats wins 62% of seasons Iron Wombats either Crimson Marmots

Neon Walruses Rocket Pandas Turbo Llamas Cosmic Badgers Polar Yetis Quantum Ferrets Iron Wombats Crimson Marmots

Clinched and eliminated are mathematically certain. Over 99.9% and under 0.1% are near-certain, not guaranteed. Controls its destiny: if it wins every remaining game and beats every median, it's in.

Which games matter most how far each result could move the playoff odds

Week 9's biggest games

32.8 pts CBCosmic Badgers vs QFQuantum Ferrets expected move in playoff odds, all eight teams combined
10.9 pts NWNeon Walruses vs CMCrimson Marmots expected move in playoff odds, all eight teams combined
10.5 pts TLTurbo Llamas vs PYPolar Yetis expected move in playoff odds, all eight teams combined
9.7 pts RPRocket Pandas vs IWIron Wombats expected move in playoff odds, all eight teams combined

How much each team's game that week matters to its playoff odds; 1.0 is an average game. A dash means too few seasons to judge.

Team	9	10	11	12	13	14
RPRocket Pandas	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.6
TLTurbo Llamas	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.8	1.0	0.8
NWNeon Walruses	0.9	1.1	0.9	1.2	0.9	0.9
QFQuantum Ferrets	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.0	2.0	1.9
CBCosmic Badgers	2.6	2.2	2.0	2.1	1.7	2.0
PYPolar Yetis	0.7	0.8	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.8
IWIron Wombats	0.7	0.9	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.5
CMCrimson Marmots	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1

the same for the median game

Team	9	10	11	12	13	14
RPRocket Pandas	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.5	0.6	0.6
TLTurbo Llamas	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.9
NWNeon Walruses	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.2	1.1	1.0
QFQuantum Ferrets	2.3	2.1	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.2
CBCosmic Badgers	2.2	2.2	2.1	2.3	2.2	2.2
PYPolar Yetis	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.8
IWIron Wombats	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.8	0.7	0.7
CMCrimson Marmots	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2

Who to root for week 9, for Quantum Ferrets (66.1% now)

Game	Root for	Your odds if the first team wins	if the second wins	Difference
NWNeon Walruses vs CMCrimson Marmots	CMCrimson Marmots	64.7%	69.8%	-5.1 ± 1.0	a clear difference
RPRocket Pandas vs IWIron Wombats	either	66.8%	65.1%	+1.7 ± 0.97	no measurable change
TLTurbo Llamas vs PYPolar Yetis	either	65.6%	66.6%	-1.0 ± 0.95	no measurable change

Around the median

CBCosmic Badgers: your odds 76.1% if they miss the median, 59.8% if they beat it. You want them to score low.
NWNeon Walruses: your odds 69.1% if they miss the median, 64.0% if they beat it. You want them to score low.
IWIron Wombats: your odds 67.5% if they miss the median, 63.6% if they beat it. You want them to score low.
TLTurbo Llamas: your odds 68.0% if they miss the median, 64.7% if they beat it. You want them to score low.

How many wins is enough? playoff odds by final win total

<1%

<1%

<1%

4%

18%

48%

81%

96%

99%+

99%+

99%+

99%+

99%+

9101112131415161718192021

Final regular-season wins, head-to-head and median together. Ties in wins go to points. Hatched bars rest on too few seasons to trust.

view as table

Final wins	Made the playoffs	Seasons	How often it ends there
9.0	0.0% ± 0.00	63 (too few)	0.6%
10.0	0.0% ± 0.00	162 (too few)	1.6%
11.0	0.2% ± 0.24	414	4.1%
12.0	3.8% ± 0.71	716	7.2%
13.0	18.4% ± 1.1	1,181	11.8%
14.0	48.0% ± 1.3	1,401	14.0%
15.0	80.8% ± 0.98	1,613	16.1%
16.0	96.2% ± 0.49	1,537	15.4%
17.0	100.0% ± 0.00	1,323	13.2%
18.0	100.0% ± 0.00	811	8.1%
19.0	100.0% ± 0.00	525	5.2%
20.0	100.0% ± 0.00	174 (too few)	1.7%
21.0	100.0% ± 0.00	80 (too few)	0.8%