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team · rank 2 of 8

TLTurbo Llamas

11 wins (5–3 head-to-head, 6–2 against the median) · 40–16 all-play · 1361.55 points for, 1356.38 against · streak W1 · 4 clear of fifth · 44 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
92.5%
± 0.26
title odds
22.4%
week-9 forecast
final wins
15–21
8 seasons in 10 · median 18
record
11–5
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 RPRocket Pandas W 193.61–179.61 W had 57%
Week 2 PYPolar Yetis W 179.33–155.95 W had 50%
Week 3 CMCrimson Marmots W 151.33–142.57 L had 61%
Week 4 CBCosmic Badgers L 97.22–156.78 L had 70%
Week 5 IWIron Wombats W 216.25–172.30 W had 50%
Week 6 QFQuantum Ferrets W 155.98–144.53 W had 64%
Week 7 NWNeon Walruses L 182.37–192.72 W had 60%
Week 8 RPRocket Pandas L 185.46–211.92 W had 54%
Week 9 · this week PYPolar Yetis — — — 53%
Week 10 CMCrimson Marmots — — — 70%
Week 11 CBCosmic Badgers — — — 49%
Week 12 IWIron Wombats — — — 67%
Week 13 QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 51%
Week 14 NWNeon Walruses — — — 48%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Emeka Egbuka WRIRFoot—Nov 4, 6:30 pm
Jordyn Tyson WRIR———
Carnell Tate WROutShoulder—Oct 31, 3:25 pm
TreVeyon Henderson RBQuestionableIllness—Nov 4, 6:45 pm

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Josh AllenQBBUF21.6
10th 12.6 · 25th 17.1 · median 23.4 · 75th 31.6 · 90th 41.1 · mean 25.513–41
 7+5.6
Jared GoffQBDET19.9
10th 10.4 · 25th 14.5 · median 20.5 · 75th 28.6 · 90th 38.6 · mean 22.910–39
 6+0.3
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWRSEA19.7
10th 11.7 · 25th 16.5 · median 23.4 · 75th 32.6 · 90th 43.7 · mean 25.912–44
 11+11.4
Ja'Marr ChaseWRCIN17.7
10th 6.1 · 25th 9.8 · median 15.5 · 75th 23.5 · 90th 33.4 · mean 18.16–33
 6+4.7
Bucky IrvingRBTB15.2
10th 3.9 · 25th 6.4 · median 10.6 · 75th 16.9 · 90th 25.5 · mean 13.24–26
 10+4.9
Matthew GoldenWRGB13.5
10th 4.3 · 25th 6.8 · median 10.8 · 75th 16.7 · 90th 24.4 · mean 13.04–24
 11+2.8
George KittleTESF13.0
10th 4.2 · 25th 6.9 · median 11.5 · 75th 18.8 · 90th 28.8 · mean 14.74–29
 8+3.4
Evan McPhersonKCIN12.2
10th 5.5 · 25th 7.9 · median 11.6 · 75th 16.8 · 90th 23.4 · mean 13.46–23
 6+0.6
Saquon BarkleyRBPHI11.9
10th 1.2 · 25th 2.5 · median 5.2 · 75th 10.1 · 90th 17.7 · mean 8.01–18
 10-1.1
Parker WashingtonWRJAX11.6
10th 3.8 · 25th 6.5 · median 10.8 · 75th 17.2 · 90th 25.9 · mean 13.34–26
 7+0.3
Dillon ThienemanDBCHI10.8
10th 3.7 · 25th 5.7 · median 8.9 · 75th 14.0 · 90th 20.8 · mean 11.04–21
 10+0.5
Carnell TateWRTEN10.2
10th 2.3 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.3 · 75th 12.4 · 90th 19.4 · mean 9.62–19
 9Out-1.9
Sonny StylesLBWAS10.0
10th 3.4 · 25th 5.2 · median 8.1 · 75th 12.7 · 90th 18.8 · mean 10.03–19
 7-0.3
Aidan HutchinsonDLDET9.4
10th 2.2 · 25th 3.7 · median 6.9 · 75th 12.5 · 90th 21.6 · mean 10.12–22
 6+1.2
Tyler AllgeierRBARI9.3
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.6 · median 4.9 · 75th 8.8 · 90th 14.3 · mean 6.81–14
 14-0.2
Emeka EgbukaWRTB9.1
10th 2.3 · 25th 3.9 · median 6.7 · 75th 11.2 · 90th 17.7 · mean 8.82–18
 10IR-1.6
Tucker KraftTEGB8.9
10th 1.9 · 25th 3.4 · median 6.0 · 75th 10.5 · 90th 17.2 · mean 8.32–17
 11+0.8
Josh DownsWRIND7.9
10th 1.6 · 25th 2.9 · median 5.3 · 75th 9.2 · 90th 15.1 · mean 7.32–15
 13-4.0
Makai LemonWRPHI6.6
10th 1.1 · 25th 2.1 · median 4.0 · 75th 7.3 · 90th 12.4 · mean 5.91–12
 10-4.4
TreVeyon HendersonRBNE5.3
10th 0.9 · 25th 1.8 · median 3.8 · 75th 7.4 · 90th 12.9 · mean 5.81–13
 11Questionable-5.5
Jordyn TysonWRNO—
10th 2.4 · 25th 3.8 · median 6.0 · 75th 9.1 · 90th 13.1 · mean 7.12–13
 —IR-4.7

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 199.9%0.110.9+10.8 *
Week 297.9%3.427.1+23.7
Week 398.8%2.035.2+33.2
Week 499.1%1.554.7+53.2
Week 599.0%1.614.2+12.6
Week 699.9%0.17.6+7.5
Week 798.4%2.72.0-0.7 *
Week 898.3%3.05.6+2.6 *

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
8waiver claim + Tyler Allgeier− Emanuel Wilson not priced yet
8free-agent add + Makai Lemon− Azeez Al-Shaair not measurable
7free-agent add + Azeez Al-Shaair− Byron Young not measurable
6waiver claim + Jared Goff− Jason Myers +3.4 ± 0.60 a clear gain
6waiver claim + Byron Young− Jacory Croskey-Merritt +4.1 ± 0.93 a clear gain
5free-agent add − Jadarian Price not measurable
5waiver claim + Jason Myers +0.6 ± 0.79 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Emanuel Wilson +3.3 ± 1.2 a modest gain
4waiver claim + Dillon Thieneman− Nick Emmanwori +7.3 ± 0.91 a clear gain
3free-agent add + Josh Downs− MarShawn Lloyd +0.0 ± 1.3 no measurable change
3waiver claim + Nick Emmanwori− Cooper DeJean -2.1 ± 0.84 a modest loss
2free-agent add − KC Concepcion -0.7 ± 1.0 no measurable change
1waiver claim + Matthew Golden− Bo Nix +3.9 ± 1.7 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Cooper DeJean− Nick Emmanwori +1.8 ± 1.4 no measurable change
1free-agent add + KC Concepcion +0.6 ± 1.1 no measurable change
1free-agent add + Nick Emmanwori− Dillon Thieneman +4.5 ± 1.4 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Evan McPherson +5.0 ± 1.4 a modest gain
1free-agent add + KC Concepcion not measurable
1free-agent add − Byron Young not measurable
1free-agent add + MarShawn Lloyd− KC Concepcion +4.7 ± 1.2 a modest gain

Against Quantum Ferrets 1–4 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season6L144.53–155.98
202514L121.46–155.34
20257L159.12–171.26
20248L155.56–206.60
20241W193.40–153.10