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team · rank 8 of 8

PYPolar Yetis

4 wins (2–6 head-to-head, 2–6 against the median) · 19–37 all-play · 1248.40 points for, 1295.65 against · streak L7 · 5 back of fourth · 20 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
7.8%
± 0.27
title odds
2.0%
week-9 forecast
final wins
8–13
8 seasons in 10 · median 11
record
4–12
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 NWNeon Walruses W 168.36–138.10 L had 44%
Week 2 TLTurbo Llamas L 155.95–179.33 W had 50%
Week 3 RPRocket Pandas L 164.45–167.08 W had 39%
Week 4 CMCrimson Marmots L 156.46–184.22 L had 56%
Week 5 CBCosmic Badgers W 163.55–134.54 L had 53%
Week 6 IWIron Wombats L 131.10–133.88 L had 40%
Week 7 QFQuantum Ferrets L 146.08–158.80 L had 36%
Week 8 NWNeon Walruses L 162.45–199.70 L had 64%
Week 9 · this week TLTurbo Llamas — — — 47%
Week 10 RPRocket Pandas — — — 47%
Week 11 CMCrimson Marmots — — — 69%
Week 12 CBCosmic Badgers — — — 48%
Week 13 IWIron Wombats — — — 66%
Week 14 QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 50%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Alec Pierce WRIRHeel—Nov 4, 6:00 pm
Myles Garrett DEIRKnee—SurgeryNov 2, 10:25 pm
DJ Moore WRQuestionableUndisclosed—Nov 1, 10:40 pm
Kyle Monangai RBQuestionableToe—SprainOct 31, 5:20 pm

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Trevor LawrenceQBJAX20.3
10th 9.7 · 25th 13.7 · median 19.8 · 75th 28.1 · 90th 38.1 · mean 22.310–38
 7+1.1
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRDET16.8
10th 6.9 · 25th 10.9 · median 16.8 · 75th 25.0 · 90th 35.5 · mean 19.57–35
 6+4.4
Kyren WilliamsRBLAR16.3
10th 6.7 · 25th 10.5 · median 16.7 · 75th 25.7 · 90th 37.2 · mean 19.97–37
 11+5.8
Justin JeffersonWRMIN14.8
10th 3.3 · 25th 5.7 · median 9.8 · 75th 15.9 · 90th 24.1 · mean 12.23–24
 6+2.2
Chase BrownRBCIN14.2
10th 3.0 · 25th 5.3 · median 9.5 · 75th 16.2 · 90th 25.8 · mean 12.63–26
 6+0.6
Josh JacobsRBGB13.5
10th 4.9 · 25th 7.8 · median 12.5 · 75th 19.3 · 90th 27.9 · mean 14.95–28
 11+5.8
Jonah ColemanRBDEN12.9
10th 3.9 · 25th 6.8 · median 11.6 · 75th 19.4 · 90th 29.8 · mean 14.94–30
 10+2.4
Rashee RiceWRKC12.2
10th 4.2 · 25th 7.1 · median 11.5 · 75th 18.1 · 90th 27.0 · mean 14.14–27
 5+0.0
Ernest Jones IVLBSEA11.6
10th 4.9 · 25th 7.3 · median 11.1 · 75th 16.9 · 90th 24.4 · mean 13.45–24
 11+0.7
Eddy PineiroKSF11.1
10th 3.0 · 25th 4.7 · median 7.8 · 75th 12.6 · 90th 19.2 · mean 9.93–19
 8-3.4
DJ MooreWRBUF10.7
10th 2.6 · 25th 4.6 · median 8.1 · 75th 13.4 · 90th 21.0 · mean 10.43–21
 7Questionable-1.3
Myles GarrettDELAR10.6
10th 2.7 · 25th 4.8 · median 8.7 · 75th 15.0 · 90th 24.2 · mean 11.83–24
 11IR+3.7
Alec PierceWRIND9.6
10th 1.2 · 25th 2.5 · median 4.8 · 75th 8.8 · 90th 14.8 · mean 6.91–15
 13IR-4.0
Colston LovelandTECHI9.3
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.7 · median 6.9 · 75th 12.3 · 90th 20.4 · mean 9.72–20
 10+0.0
Jeremy ChinnDBLV9.0
10th 2.8 · 25th 4.3 · median 6.7 · 75th 10.5 · 90th 15.4 · mean 8.23–15
 13+0.9
Tre TuckerWRLV8.4
10th 2.5 · 25th 4.2 · median 7.0 · 75th 11.4 · 90th 17.2 · mean 8.83–17
 13-0.9
Adonai MitchellWRNYJ7.5
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.0 · 75th 11.3 · 90th 16.9 · mean 8.72–17
 13-1.4
Dalton KincaidTEBUF7.4
10th 1.8 · 25th 3.2 · median 5.9 · 75th 10.5 · 90th 17.2 · mean 8.32–17
 7-0.5
Kyle MonangaiRBCHI7.2
10th 2.0 · 25th 3.8 · median 7.3 · 75th 13.5 · 90th 21.2 · mean 10.12–21
 10Questionable-3.0
Quinnen WilliamsDTDAL6.0
10th 1.0 · 25th 1.9 · median 3.9 · 75th 7.7 · 90th 14.0 · mean 6.41–14
 14-1.5
Emmett JohnsonRBKC6.0
10th 1.2 · 25th 2.6 · median 5.4 · 75th 11.4 · 90th 21.6 · mean 8.91–22
 5-5.2

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 199.3%1.222.3+21.2 *
Week 299.8%0.32.8+2.5
Week 399.4%0.92.1+1.2
Week 497.3%4.530.4+25.9 *
Week 597.6%3.70.4-3.3
Week 692.4%11.61.4-10.3 *
Week 794.6%8.20.0-8.2
Week 897.6%4.014.1+10.1

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
9free-agent add + Quinnen Williams− Derrick Barnes not priced yet
9free-agent add + Eddy Pineiro− Spencer Shrader not priced yet
9free-agent add + Adonai Mitchell− Tyler Shough not priced yet
9free-agent add + Emmett Johnson not priced yet
8free-agent add − Jeremiyah Love not measurable
8trade got DJ Mooregave Will Anderson Jr. to Rocket Pandas -0.3 ± 0.67 no measurable change
8waiver claim + Derrick Barnes− Brenton Strange -3.8 ± 1.2 a modest loss
8waiver claim + Brenton Strange +1.2 ± 0.87 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Jeremy Chinn− Mansoor Delane +1.9 ± 0.77 a modest gain
7free-agent add − Dallas Goedert +0.4 ± 0.99 no measurable change
7trade got Colston Lovelandgot Chase Browngave Mike Evans to Rocket Pandasgave Chuba Hubbard to Rocket Pandas -9.9 ± 1.0 a clear loss
7free-agent add + Jonah Coleman− Keenan Allen -0.9 ± 0.99 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Dallas Goedert +2.4 ± 1.2 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Keenan Allen not measurable
6free-agent add − Trey Hendrickson -0.8 ± 0.70 no measurable change
6free-agent add − MarShawn Lloyd +1.8 ± 1.0 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Trey Hendrickson− Keenan Allen -3.4 ± 1.2 a modest loss
6free-agent add + Mansoor Delane− Caleb Downs -7.3 ± 1.5 a clear loss
6waiver claim + Keenan Allen− Mike Gesicki not measurable
6free-agent add + MarShawn Lloyd− Tyler Allgeier +2.2 ± 1.1 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Ernest Jones− Fred Warner -2.7 ± 0.97 a modest loss
5trade not measurable
4trade got Jeremiyah Lovegave Cam Skattebo to Iron Wombats +2.7 ± 1.3 a modest gain
5waiver claim + Tyler Allgeier− Jordan Addison -3.1 ± 1.2 a modest loss
5free-agent add + Mike Gesicki− Blake Corum +1.8 ± 1.2 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Fred Warner− Demetrius Knight -7.1 ± 1.3 a clear loss
4free-agent add + Spencer Shrader− Tyler Bass +2.2 ± 1.4 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Demetrius Knight− Zack Baun +8.9 ± 1.1 a clear gain
3waiver claim + Jordan Addison− Adonai Mitchell not measurable
3trade got Dalton Kincaidgot Chuba Hubbardgave Colston Loveland to Rocket Pandasgave Chase Brown to Rocket Pandas +19.4 ± 0.95 a clear gain
3free-agent add + Tyler Bass− Chase McLaughlin +3.0 ± 1.1 a modest gain
3free-agent add + Adonai Mitchell +2.0 ± 1.5 no measurable change
2waiver claim + Tyler Shough− Justin Herbert +7.7 ± 0.87 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Tre Tucker− Michael Wilson -0.3 ± 1.1 no measurable change
1waiver claim + Zack Baun− Quentin Johnston +3.9 ± 1.1 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Quentin Johnston +3.8 ± 1.1 a modest gain
1trade got Josh Jacobsgave Tyrone Tracy to Cosmic Badgers +6.2 ± 0.73 a clear gain
1free-agent add − Nik Bonitto +0.1 ± 1.4 no measurable change
1free-agent add + Chase McLaughlin +2.9 ± 1.3 a modest gain

Against Quantum Ferrets 1–5 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season7W158.80–146.08
202512L112.66–152.96
20255L101.66–128.94
202415L196.56–207.64
202414L188.12–221.86
20247L174.24–199.02