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team · rank 1 of 8

RPRocket Pandas

11 wins (5–3 head-to-head, 6–2 against the median) · 38–18 all-play · 1395.85 points for, 1315.50 against · streak W2 · 4 clear of fifth · 42 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
95.7%
± 0.20
title odds
26.0%
week-9 forecast
final wins
15–21
8 seasons in 10 · median 18
record
11–5
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 TLTurbo Llamas L 179.61–193.61 W had 43%
Week 2 IWIron Wombats W 182.15–126.03 W had 67%
Week 3 PYPolar Yetis W 167.08–164.45 W had 61%
Week 4 QFQuantum Ferrets W 195.83–148.62 W had 28%
Week 5 CMCrimson Marmots W 175.22–171.28 W had 49%
Week 6 NWNeon Walruses L 137.27–173.07 L had 74%
Week 7 CBCosmic Badgers L 146.77–152.98 L had 60%
Week 8 TLTurbo Llamas W 211.92–185.46 W had 46%
Week 9 · this week IWIron Wombats — — — 58%
Week 10 PYPolar Yetis — — — 53%
Week 11 QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 53%
Week 12 CMCrimson Marmots — — — 72%
Week 13 NWNeon Walruses — — — 50%
Week 14 CBCosmic Badgers — — — 52%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Davante Adams WRIRHamstring—SurgeryOct 28, 10:45 pm
David Montgomery RBQuestionableGroin—Nov 4, 7:40 pm
Garrett Wilson WRQuestionableConcussion—Nov 4, 5:55 pm
Mike Evans WRQuestionableAchilles—TendinitisOct 27, 5:30 am

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Brock PurdyQBSF22.6
10th 11.8 · 25th 16.1 · median 22.7 · 75th 31.7 · 90th 42.5 · mean 25.312–42
 8+1.7
Joe BurrowQBCIN21.7
10th 11.5 · 25th 15.7 · median 21.8 · 75th 30.1 · 90th 39.6 · mean 24.112–40
 6+3.3
James Cook IIIRBBUF15.9
10th 6.4 · 25th 9.8 · median 15.3 · 75th 23.2 · 90th 33.4 · mean 18.16–33
 7+6.7
Chuba HubbardRBCAR15.8
10th 5.2 · 25th 8.2 · median 13.0 · 75th 19.9 · 90th 28.9 · mean 15.55–29
 5+6.8
Davante AdamsWRLAR14.2
10th 4.8 · 25th 8.2 · median 13.5 · 75th 20.8 · 90th 30.3 · mean 16.05–30
 11IR+3.2
Mike EvansWRSF13.8
10th 4.7 · 25th 7.6 · median 12.4 · 75th 19.4 · 90th 28.7 · mean 15.15–29
 8Questionable+0.9
Jaylen WarrenRBPIT13.8
10th 4.5 · 25th 7.2 · median 11.6 · 75th 17.9 · 90th 26.2 · mean 13.95–26
 9+4.8
Nakobe DeanLBLV12.4
10th 4.3 · 25th 6.3 · median 9.5 · 75th 14.2 · 90th 20.4 · mean 11.34–20
 13+2.5
Luther Burden IIIWRCHI11.8
10th 4.2 · 25th 6.9 · median 11.1 · 75th 17.4 · 90th 25.7 · mean 13.54–26
 10+0.4
Ashton JeantyRBLV11.3
10th 3.3 · 25th 5.2 · median 8.5 · 75th 13.4 · 90th 20.0 · mean 10.53–20
 13+3.1
Tetairoa McMillanWRCAR11.3
10th 3.2 · 25th 5.5 · median 9.2 · 75th 14.7 · 90th 21.7 · mean 11.33–22
 5+1.1
Jake BatesKDET11.0
10th 5.7 · 25th 8.1 · median 11.8 · 75th 17.0 · 90th 23.4 · mean 13.66–23
 6+0.0
Garrett WilsonWRNYJ10.9
10th 3.0 · 25th 5.0 · median 8.3 · 75th 13.1 · 90th 19.8 · mean 10.33–20
 13Questionable+0.7
DK MetcalfWRPIT9.8
10th 1.8 · 25th 3.3 · median 5.9 · 75th 10.2 · 90th 16.3 · mean 8.02–16
 9-2.8
Quentin LakeDBLAR9.7
10th 3.4 · 25th 5.2 · median 8.3 · 75th 13.0 · 90th 19.3 · mean 10.23–19
 11+0.0
Will Anderson Jr.DLHOU9.6
10th 2.5 · 25th 4.2 · median 7.5 · 75th 13.1 · 90th 21.6 · mean 10.42–22
 8+3.0
Alex SingletonLBDEN9.4
10th 4.3 · 25th 6.4 · median 9.7 · 75th 14.8 · 90th 21.4 · mean 11.74–21
 10+0.0
Harold Fannin Jr.TECLE9.2
10th 1.9 · 25th 3.5 · median 6.3 · 75th 11.1 · 90th 18.1 · mean 8.72–18
 11+1.3
David MontgomeryRBHOU8.7
10th 1.8 · 25th 3.6 · median 7.0 · 75th 12.4 · 90th 20.1 · mean 9.62–20
 8Questionable-1.9
Blake CorumRBLAR8.1
10th 2.7 · 25th 4.7 · median 8.5 · 75th 15.0 · 90th 23.4 · mean 11.43–23
 11-1.8
T.J. WattLBPIT7.6
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.3 · median 5.5 · 75th 9.1 · 90th 14.3 · mean 7.22–14
 9-3.3

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 1100.0%0.022.1+22.1
Week 298.4%2.56.2+3.8 *
Week 396.8%5.218.6+13.4
Week 4100.0%0.018.8+18.8 *
Week 599.5%0.86.6+5.8
Week 698.5%2.523.5+21.0
Week 797.0%4.848.8+43.9
Week 8100.0%0.013.0+13.0

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
8trade got Will Anderson Jr.gave DJ Moore to Polar Yetis -1.7 ± 0.61 a modest loss
7trade got Mike Evansgot Chuba Hubbardgave Colston Loveland to Polar Yetisgave Chase Brown to Polar Yetis +6.5 ± 1.1 a clear gain
6waiver claim + Blake Corum− Eddy Pineiro +0.4 ± 0.86 no measurable change
6waiver claim + Alex Singleton +0.5 ± 0.99 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Eddy Pineiro +1.1 ± 0.54 no measurable change
5free-agent add − Chamarri Conner not measurable
5trade got David Montgomerygave Tony Pollard to Neon Walruses +1.1 ± 0.79 no measurable change
5trade got DJ Mooregave Micah Parsons to Crimson Marmots not measurable
5trade got Davante Adamsgave Omarion Hampton to Iron Wombatsgave Tee Higgins to Neon Walrusesgave Tank Dell to Neon Walruses -0.1 ± 0.46 no measurable change
5trade not measurable
4waiver claim + Tony Pollard− Marvin Harrison +2.5 ± 1.7 no measurable change
4free-agent add − Tyreek Hill not measurable
4waiver claim + Harold Fannin− Rashod Bateman +2.1 ± 1.2 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Tyreek Hill -1.3 ± 0.90 no measurable change
3trade gave J.K. Dobbins to Crimson Marmots -3.6 ± 1.1 a modest loss
3trade got Colston Lovelandgot Chase Browngave Dalton Kincaid to Polar Yetisgave Chuba Hubbard to Polar Yetis -26.0 ± 0.87 a clear loss
2trade got DK Metcalfgave Travis Hunter to Cosmic Badgers not measurable
2waiver claim + Rashod Bateman− Jayden Reed not measurable
2waiver claim + Quentin Lake− Malaki Starks +0.5 ± 0.70 no measurable change
2waiver claim + Malaki Starks +9.6 ± 0.79 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Chamarri Conner− Zyon McCollum +9.5 ± 1.1 a clear gain
1waiver claim + Zyon McCollum− Jordan Addison +4.9 ± 1.2 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Jake Bates +8.3 ± 0.92 a clear gain
1free-agent add + Nakobe Dean− Abdul Carter +5.1 ± 1.2 a clear gain
1waiver claim + J.K. Dobbins− Isaiah Likely +1.3 ± 0.69 no measurable change

Against Quantum Ferrets 2–4 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season4L148.62–195.83
20258L127.58–179.52
20251L83.54–126.86
202416L210.46–273.10
202410W166.56–139.52
20243W223.16–204.74