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team · rank 7 of 8

CMCrimson Marmots

5 wins (2–6 head-to-head, 3–5 against the median) · 20–36 all-play · 1209.75 points for, 1263.92 against · streak L4 · 4 back of fourth · 0 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
1.0%
± 0.10
title odds
0.1%
week-9 forecast
final wins
6–11
8 seasons in 10 · median 8
record
5–11
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 QFQuantum Ferrets L 182.03–187.36 W had 45%
Week 2 NWNeon Walruses L 141.80–166.48 L had 68%
Week 3 TLTurbo Llamas L 142.57–151.33 L had 39%
Week 4 PYPolar Yetis W 184.22–156.46 W had 44%
Week 5 RPRocket Pandas L 171.28–175.22 L had 51%
Week 6 CBCosmic Badgers W 147.26–127.62 W had 29%
Week 7 IWIron Wombats L 125.17–165.12 L had 59%
Week 8 QFQuantum Ferrets L 115.42–134.33 L had 33%
Week 9 · this week NWNeon Walruses — — — 29%
Week 10 TLTurbo Llamas — — — 30%
Week 11 PYPolar Yetis — — — 31%
Week 12 RPRocket Pandas — — — 28%
Week 13 CBCosmic Badgers — — — 30%
Week 14 IWIron Wombats — — — 47%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Micah Parsons LBIRKnee - ACL—SurgeryNov 4, 6:05 pm
Matthew Stafford QBQuestionableArm—Nov 2, 11:45 pm
Nick Bosa DEQuestionableKnee—StrainOct 27, 5:40 am

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Matthew StaffordQBLAR18.1
10th 7.7 · 25th 11.2 · median 16.6 · 75th 24.0 · 90th 33.2 · mean 18.98–33
 11Questionable-1.5
CeeDee LambWRDAL16.9
10th 6.9 · 25th 10.8 · median 16.6 · 75th 24.7 · 90th 34.6 · mean 19.27–35
 14+4.8
Nico CollinsWRHOU12.9
10th 3.7 · 25th 6.3 · median 10.6 · 75th 17.0 · 90th 25.3 · mean 13.04–25
 8+1.8
Quinshon JudkinsRBCLE12.2
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.3 · median 7.7 · 75th 13.4 · 90th 21.5 · mean 10.52–21
 11+0.9
Derrick HenryRBBAL12.1
10th 3.3 · 25th 5.4 · median 8.7 · 75th 13.8 · 90th 20.4 · mean 10.73–20
 13+5.7
Devin LloydLBCAR12.1
10th 4.4 · 25th 6.5 · median 9.9 · 75th 15.1 · 90th 21.7 · mean 11.94–22
 5+1.9
George PickensWRDAL11.1
10th 3.6 · 25th 6.1 · median 10.3 · 75th 16.3 · 90th 24.3 · mean 12.64–24
 14-0.9
Tyler BassKBUF11.0
10th 5.9 · 25th 8.2 · median 11.7 · 75th 16.7 · 90th 22.7 · mean 13.36–23
 7+1.4
Sam LaPortaTEDET10.4
10th 2.8 · 25th 4.9 · median 8.5 · 75th 14.6 · 90th 23.2 · mean 11.43–23
 6+1.1
Stefon DiggsWRWAS9.9
10th 3.2 · 25th 5.3 · median 8.7 · 75th 14.0 · 90th 20.9 · mean 10.93–21
 7-0.0
Zach CharbonnetRBSEA9.7
10th 1.7 · 25th 3.6 · median 7.4 · 75th 13.9 · 90th 23.3 · mean 10.62–23
 11-2.3
Jadarian PriceRBSEA9.4
10th 0.8 · 25th 1.9 · median 4.4 · 75th 9.3 · 90th 17.7 · mean 7.61–18
 11-4.8
Braelon AllenRBNYJ8.8
10th 2.2 · 25th 3.8 · median 6.6 · 75th 10.9 · 90th 16.8 · mean 8.52–17
 13+0.5
KC Concepcion Jr.WRCLE8.5
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.7 · median 5.1 · 75th 9.1 · 90th 14.9 · mean 7.11–15
 11-3.6
Germie BernardWRPIT8.2
10th 1.6 · 25th 2.9 · median 5.5 · 75th 9.6 · 90th 15.2 · mean 7.42–15
 9-3.4
Dane BeltonDBNYJ8.0
10th 2.7 · 25th 4.1 · median 6.4 · 75th 10.0 · 90th 14.7 · mean 7.93–15
 13+0.8
Aaron Jones Sr.RBMIN7.9
10th 2.3 · 25th 4.0 · median 6.9 · 75th 11.5 · 90th 17.7 · mean 8.92–18
 6-0.9
Jordan MasonRBMIN7.3
10th 1.2 · 25th 2.4 · median 4.8 · 75th 8.9 · 90th 14.7 · mean 6.91–15
 6-3.3
Nick BosaDESF6.1
10th 1.0 · 25th 1.9 · median 3.8 · 75th 7.7 · 90th 14.5 · mean 6.51–14
 8Questionable-1.9
Micah ParsonsLBGB5.0
10th 0.9 · 25th 1.7 · median 3.2 · 75th 5.9 · 90th 10.1 · mean 4.71–10
 11IR-6.1

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 199.5%0.816.3+15.4
Week 298.9%1.816.4+14.6 *
Week 395.3%7.46.7-0.7 *
Week 499.5%0.833.5+32.8 *
Week 5100.0%0.00.8+0.8 *
Week 698.7%1.80.0-1.8 *
Week 795.9%6.420.7+14.3 *
Week 8100.0%0.03.5+3.5 *

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
9free-agent add − Marvin Harrison Jr. not priced yet
9free-agent add + Nick Bosa not priced yet
9free-agent add + Amani Hooker− Brian Branch not priced yet
9free-agent add + Dane Belton− Amani Hooker not priced yet
8free-agent add − Byron Young not measurable
8free-agent add + Brian Branch− Brandon Jones -3.2 ± 1.2 a modest loss
8free-agent add − Nick Bosa not measurable
8free-agent add − Maxx Crosby -1.9 ± 0.96 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Jadarian Price -0.7 ± 1.0 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Byron Young +1.1 ± 0.99 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Tyler Bass− Ka'imi Fairbairn not measurable
8free-agent add + Josh Hines-Allen not measurable
8free-agent add + KC Concepcion Jr. +0.3 ± 1.5 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Nick Bosa− Josh Hines-Allen -1.2 ± 0.78 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Maxx Crosby +0.1 ± 0.77 no measurable change
7free-agent add − C.J. Stroud not measurable
7free-agent add − Elijah Ponder not measurable
7free-agent add − Mason Graham -0.3 ± 0.57 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Mason Graham +3.8 ± 1.2 a modest gain
7free-agent add − Maxx Crosby -5.6 ± 0.84 a clear loss
7free-agent add + Ka'imi Fairbairn− Tyler Bass not measurable
7free-agent add + Nick Bosa not measurable
7free-agent add + C.J. Stroud +9.6 ± 1.3 a clear gain
7free-agent add + Maxx Crosby− Nick Bosa +3.6 ± 1.1 a modest gain
6free-agent add − Tanner McKee -1.2 ± 1.0 no measurable change
6free-agent add − Tyler Higbee +0.6 ± 1.1 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Tyler Higbee− Mike Gesicki not measurable
6free-agent add + Tanner McKee− Jayden Daniels not measurable
6free-agent add + Mike Gesicki− Dallas Goedert -3.6 ± 0.47 a clear loss
6waiver claim + Braelon Allen− Blake Corum -4.1 ± 0.89 a clear loss
6free-agent add − Jalen Hurts not measurable
6free-agent add + Jayden Daniels +1.8 ± 1.3 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Blake Corum− RJ Harvey not measurable
6waiver claim + Dallas Goedert− Tyler Higbee +2.5 ± 0.59 a clear gain
6free-agent add − Maxx Crosby -3.3 ± 0.78 a clear loss
6waiver claim + Elijah Ponder -3.5 ± 1.1 a modest loss
6waiver claim + Tyler Higbee− Emmett Johnson not measurable
6free-agent add − Deebo Samuel not measurable
6free-agent add + Germie Bernard +0.5 ± 0.93 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Tyler Bass− Ka'imi Fairbairn +2.9 ± 0.61 a clear gain
5waiver claim + Jordan Mason− Jack Campbell not measurable
5free-agent add + Roschon Johnson− Emmett Johnson +4.3 ± 1.4 a modest gain
5free-agent add + Emmett Johnson− Roschon Johnson -4.3 ± 1.4 a modest loss
5free-agent add + Jack Campbell− Emmett Johnson not measurable
5free-agent add + Emmett Johnson− Ernest Jones -4.1 ± 0.96 a clear loss
5free-agent add + Matthew Stafford− Jayden Daniels +5.4 ± 1.0 a clear gain
5trade got Micah Parsonsgave DJ Moore to Rocket Pandas not measurable
5free-agent add + Emmett Johnson -4.0 ± 1.4 a modest loss
5free-agent add + Ka'imi Fairbairn− Matt Gay -0.9 ± 0.93 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Jayden Daniels− Tuli Tuipulotu +9.3 ± 1.5 a clear gain
5free-agent add + Tuli Tuipulotu− J.K. Dobbins not measurable
5free-agent add + Ernest Jones− Derrick Barnes -2.2 ± 1.7 no measurable change
4waiver claim + Marvin Harrison− Matthew Stafford -15.2 ± 0.76 a clear loss
4free-agent add + Matt Gay− Ka'imi Fairbairn -1.7 ± 1.3 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Matthew Stafford− Dalton Schultz +1.0 ± 1.3 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Brandon Jones− Derwin James +2.0 ± 1.2 no measurable change
3waiver claim + Derrick Barnes− Jordyn Brooks +1.6 ± 1.1 no measurable change
3free-agent add − Jihaad Campbell -0.7 ± 1.2 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Jihaad Campbell− Nate Landman +3.4 ± 1.2 a modest gain
3free-agent add + Nate Landman− Nick Bosa not measurable
3waiver claim + Jordyn Brooks− Barrett Carter -0.2 ± 0.79 no measurable change
3trade got J.K. Dobbins +0.7 ± 0.71 no measurable change
3trade gave Denzel Boston to Neon Walruses not measurable
3free-agent add + RJ Harvey +0.6 ± 1.3 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Barrett Carter− Rachaad White -2.9 ± 0.98 a modest loss
3waiver claim + Nick Bosa− Jordyn Brooks -0.9 ± 0.76 no measurable change
3free-agent add − Arvell Reese +1.0 ± 0.89 no measurable change
2waiver claim + Denzel Boston− Seth McGowan +5.4 ± 0.99 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Devin Lloyd− Nick Bosa not measurable
2waiver claim + Dalton Schultz− Dallas Goedert not measurable
2free-agent add + Arvell Reese +1.1 ± 1.1 no measurable change
2free-agent add + Nick Bosa− Raheim Sanders +7.6 ± 1.4 a clear gain
2free-agent add + Raheim Sanders− Kenny Gainwell -4.8 ± 0.98 a clear loss
1waiver claim + Deebo Samuel− Josh Downs +3.7 ± 1.1 a modest gain
1waiver claim + Dallas Goedert− Harold Fannin +3.8 ± 0.98 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Seth McGowan− Matthew Golden -3.8 ± 1.3 a modest loss
1free-agent add + Najee Harris not measurable
1free-agent add + Josh Downs− Malachi Fields +4.1 ± 1.1 a modest gain
1free-agent add + Stefon Diggs− Nicholas Singleton +4.4 ± 0.79 a clear gain
1free-agent add + Aaron Jones− Najee Harris +3.2 ± 1.4 a modest gain
1waiver claim + Rachaad White− Nick Emmanwori not measurable
1waiver claim + Matthew Golden− Jalen Coker not measurable

Against Quantum Ferrets 4–3 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season8W134.33–115.42
this season1W187.36–182.03
202515W157.52–119.96
202510W137.60–124.88
20253L102.22–113.96
202413L175.22–180.58
20246L135.50–211.38