Syndicate

team · rank 5 of 8

IWIron Wombats

7 wins (4–4 head-to-head, 3–5 against the median) · 25–31 all-play · 1225.76 points for, 1343.24 against · streak L2 · 2 back of fourth · 16 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
6.9%
± 0.25
title odds
0.9%
week-9 forecast
final wins
8–14
8 seasons in 10 · median 11
record
7–9
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 CBCosmic Badgers L 154.02–166.55 L had 42%
Week 2 RPRocket Pandas L 126.03–182.15 L had 33%
Week 3 QFQuantum Ferrets W 188.76–173.52 W had 21%
Week 4 NWNeon Walruses W 202.09–172.71 W had 70%
Week 5 TLTurbo Llamas L 172.30–216.25 L had 50%
Week 6 PYPolar Yetis W 133.88–131.10 L had 60%
Week 7 CMCrimson Marmots W 165.12–125.17 W had 41%
Week 8 CBCosmic Badgers L 83.56–175.79 L had 38%
Week 9 · this week RPRocket Pandas — — — 42%
Week 10 QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 34%
Week 11 NWNeon Walruses — — — 31%
Week 12 TLTurbo Llamas — — — 33%
Week 13 PYPolar Yetis — — — 34%
Week 14 CMCrimson Marmots — — — 53%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Tyler Loop KIRGroin—Nov 3, 9:55 pm
Cam Skattebo RBQuestionableHamstring—Nov 4, 7:10 pm

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Drake MayeQBNE21.6
10th 9.5 · 25th 13.5 · median 19.4 · 75th 27.2 · 90th 36.5 · mean 21.69–36
 11+2.4
Bijan RobinsonRBATL19.2
10th 5.3 · 25th 8.6 · median 13.8 · 75th 21.4 · 90th 31.5 · mean 16.65–32
 11+7.1
Jonathan TaylorRBIND17.4
10th 5.2 · 25th 8.3 · median 13.2 · 75th 20.6 · 90th 30.3 · mean 16.05–30
 13+6.2
Bryce YoungQBCAR16.8
10th 7.1 · 25th 10.0 · median 14.5 · 75th 20.7 · 90th 28.3 · mean 16.57–28
 5+0.0
Drake LondonWRATL14.8
10th 3.6 · 25th 5.9 · median 9.9 · 75th 15.8 · 90th 23.9 · mean 12.34–24
 11+1.6
Fred WarnerLBSF12.7
10th 4.9 · 25th 7.3 · median 11.3 · 75th 17.3 · 90th 25.6 · mean 13.75–26
 8-0.3
Cam SkatteboRBNYG12.0
10th 2.5 · 25th 4.5 · median 8.1 · 75th 13.7 · 90th 21.7 · mean 10.62–22
 8Questionable+0.7
Ka'imi FairbairnKHOU11.1
10th 5.3 · 25th 7.5 · median 11.0 · 75th 16.0 · 90th 22.1 · mean 12.75–22
 8+1.1
Zay FlowersWRBAL10.8
10th 4.2 · 25th 6.4 · median 9.8 · 75th 14.7 · 90th 20.8 · mean 11.54–21
 13+5.1
Carson SchwesingerLBCLE10.7
10th 3.8 · 25th 5.7 · median 8.8 · 75th 13.7 · 90th 20.1 · mean 10.84–20
 11+0.8
Tyler LoopKBAL10.2
10th 2.4 · 25th 3.7 · median 5.9 · 75th 8.9 · 90th 12.9 · mean 7.02–13
 13IR-1.1
Isaiah LikelyTENYG10.0
10th 3.0 · 25th 5.1 · median 8.7 · 75th 14.6 · 90th 22.5 · mean 11.33–22
 8+3.2
Tyler WarrenTEIND9.9
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.2 · 75th 12.5 · 90th 19.8 · mean 9.82–20
 13+1.5
Kyle HamiltonDBBAL9.1
10th 3.2 · 25th 4.7 · median 7.2 · 75th 10.8 · 90th 15.4 · mean 8.53–15
 13+3.4
Keenan AllenWRIND8.4
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.6 · median 6.4 · 75th 10.8 · 90th 17.2 · mean 8.52–17
 13-2.8
Omarion HamptonRBLAC8.3
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.6 · median 4.8 · 75th 8.9 · 90th 15.0 · mean 7.01–15
 7-2.1
Devaughn VeleWRNO7.3
10th 2.6 · 25th 4.4 · median 7.5 · 75th 12.2 · 90th 18.3 · mean 9.43–18
 8-2.4
Ryan FlournoyWRDAL7.1
10th 2.2 · 25th 3.8 · median 6.7 · 75th 11.4 · 90th 18.1 · mean 8.92–18
 14-4.1
Tuli TuipulotuDLLAC6.7
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.5 · median 4.6 · 75th 8.3 · 90th 14.3 · mean 6.71–14
 7+1.3
Keon ColemanWRBUF4.8
10th 1.1 · 25th 2.2 · median 4.1 · 75th 7.3 · 90th 12.2 · mean 5.81–12
 7-5.9

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 1100.0%0.118.8+18.7
Week 296.1%6.415.1+8.7
Week 397.0%5.018.3+13.3
Week 499.1%1.512.7+11.2
Week 598.5%2.530.3+27.8
Week 698.3%3.022.4+19.4
Week 797.7%3.815.6+11.8 *
Week 899.3%1.110.2+9.1

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
8waiver claim + Tuli Tuipulotu− Yaya Diaby not priced yet
8waiver claim + Ka'imi Fairbairn not priced yet
8free-agent add − Hunter Henry -1.5 ± 1.1 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Hunter Henry -0.2 ± 1.1 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Keenan Allen− Wan'Dale Robinson -0.8 ± 1.4 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Yaya Diaby− Jaishawn Barham -2.0 ± 1.1 no measurable change
7free-agent add − Tuli Tuipulotu not measurable
7free-agent add − Terry McLaurin not measurable
7free-agent add + Jaishawn Barham− Dallas Turner -1.3 ± 0.69 no measurable change
6waiver claim + Ryan Flournoy -0.3 ± 0.85 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Fred Warner +2.8 ± 0.90 a modest gain
6free-agent add − Rico Dowdle +0.9 ± 1.0 no measurable change
5waiver claim + Tuli Tuipulotu− Chris Godwin -3.4 ± 0.84 a clear loss
5trade got Omarion Hamptongave Davante Adams to Rocket Pandasgave Tee Higgins to Neon Walrusesgave Tank Dell to Neon Walruses -2.8 ± 1.5 no measurable change
4trade got Cam Skattebogave Jeremiyah Love to Polar Yetis -3.3 ± 0.76 a clear loss
4waiver claim + Keon Coleman +2.3 ± 1.0 a modest gain
4free-agent add − Jaxson Dart not measurable
4free-agent add + Tank Dell -1.7 ± 1.1 no measurable change
3free-agent add − Jonah Coleman not measurable
2waiver claim + Jonah Coleman -0.7 ± 0.82 no measurable change
2waiver claim + Bryce Young− Jared Verse +5.9 ± 1.0 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Dallas Turner +1.7 ± 1.0 no measurable change
2free-agent add + Isaiah Likely− Jamien Sherwood +1.5 ± 0.69 a modest gain
1waiver claim + Devaughn Vele− Makai Lemon +0.5 ± 0.63 no measurable change
1waiver claim + Tyler Loop− Cameron Dicker +2.1 ± 0.38 a clear gain

Against Quantum Ferrets 1–2 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season3L173.52–188.76
202513W140.72–95.30
20256L114.54–142.42