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team · rank 3 of 8

NWNeon Walruses

10 wins (4–4 head-to-head, 6–2 against the median) · 34–22 all-play · 1359.01 points for, 1335.84 against · streak W7 · 3 clear of fifth · 7 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
89.7%
± 0.30
title odds
25.5%
week-9 forecast
final wins
14–20
8 seasons in 10 · median 17
record
10–6
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 PYPolar Yetis L 138.10–168.36 L had 56%
Week 2 CMCrimson Marmots W 166.48–141.80 W had 32%
Week 3 CBCosmic Badgers L 136.29–146.87 L had 49%
Week 4 IWIron Wombats L 172.71–202.09 W had 30%
Week 5 QFQuantum Ferrets L 179.94–194.63 W had 27%
Week 6 RPRocket Pandas W 173.07–137.27 W had 26%
Week 7 TLTurbo Llamas W 192.72–182.37 W had 40%
Week 8 PYPolar Yetis W 199.70–162.45 W had 36%
Week 9 · this week CMCrimson Marmots — — — 71%
Week 10 CBCosmic Badgers — — — 51%
Week 11 IWIron Wombats — — — 69%
Week 12 QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 54%
Week 13 RPRocket Pandas — — — 50%
Week 14 TLTurbo Llamas — — — 52%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Lamar Jackson QBIRThumb—Nov 3, 9:05 pm
Bhayshul Tuten RBQuestionableAnkle—Nov 4, 6:55 pm
Christian McCaffrey RBQuestionableCalf—Oct 27, 5:30 am

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Lamar JacksonQBBAL21.6
10th 6.3 · 25th 8.9 · median 12.7 · 75th 18.3 · 90th 25.3 · mean 14.66–25
 13IR+2.2
Christian McCaffreyRBSF20.6
10th 8.3 · 25th 13.0 · median 20.3 · 75th 30.8 · 90th 44.4 · mean 23.98–44
 8Questionable+7.2
Kirk CousinsQBLV16.4
10th 7.8 · 25th 10.8 · median 15.2 · 75th 21.2 · 90th 28.5 · mean 17.08–29
 13+1.4
Brock BowersTELV15.0
10th 5.0 · 25th 7.6 · median 11.9 · 75th 18.4 · 90th 26.9 · mean 14.55–27
 13+8.6
Tee HigginsWRCIN13.9
10th 5.6 · 25th 9.0 · median 14.2 · 75th 21.5 · 90th 30.4 · mean 16.56–30
 6+3.2
Ollie Gordon IIRBMIA13.9
10th 2.5 · 25th 4.4 · median 7.8 · 75th 13.4 · 90th 21.1 · mean 10.42–21
 6+1.7
Malik NabersWRNYG13.7
10th 4.3 · 25th 7.1 · median 11.6 · 75th 18.0 · 90th 26.5 · mean 13.94–26
 8+3.0
Bhayshul TutenRBJAX13.5
10th 6.0 · 25th 9.5 · median 15.2 · 75th 23.6 · 90th 34.7 · mean 18.36–35
 7Questionable+4.3
Tony PollardRBTEN13.5
10th 3.4 · 25th 5.8 · median 9.9 · 75th 16.2 · 90th 24.8 · mean 12.53–25
 9+3.1
Jameson WilliamsWRDET11.2
10th 4.3 · 25th 7.2 · median 11.8 · 75th 18.4 · 90th 27.0 · mean 14.24–27
 6+0.0
Cam LittleKJAX11.2
10th 5.1 · 25th 7.4 · median 10.9 · 75th 16.0 · 90th 22.6 · mean 12.85–23
 7-0.0
Jacob RodriguezLBMIA11.0
10th 3.7 · 25th 5.6 · median 8.7 · 75th 13.3 · 90th 19.5 · mean 10.54–20
 6+0.6
Arvell ReeseLBNYG10.3
10th 3.8 · 25th 5.8 · median 9.0 · 75th 13.9 · 90th 20.3 · mean 11.04–20
 8+0.3
Evan WilliamsDBGB10.0
10th 4.0 · 25th 5.8 · median 8.8 · 75th 13.2 · 90th 18.9 · mean 10.54–19
 11+2.3
Denzel BostonWRCLE9.9
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.0 · 75th 11.7 · 90th 18.3 · mean 9.22–18
 11-1.2
Jeffery SimmonsDTCHI9.3
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.3 · 75th 13.0 · 90th 21.7 · mean 10.42–22
 10+1.8
Jaylen WaddleWRDEN9.2
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.6 · median 6.5 · 75th 11.3 · 90th 18.3 · mean 8.92–18
 10-2.8
Alvin KamaraRBNO8.8
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.7 · median 6.8 · 75th 11.8 · 90th 19.1 · mean 9.22–19
 8-1.6
Devin SingletaryRBNYG7.6
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.7 · median 5.4 · 75th 9.9 · 90th 16.2 · mean 7.61–16
 8-2.9
Caleb DouglasWRMIA7.5
10th 2.2 · 25th 3.8 · median 6.5 · 75th 10.8 · 90th 16.7 · mean 8.42–17
 6-2.5

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 197.0%5.150.9+45.8
Week 296.2%6.319.3+13.0
Week 395.8%7.026.9+19.9 *
Week 496.2%6.030.8+24.8 *
Week 599.3%1.02.0+1.0 *
Week 695.9%6.212.1+5.9
Week 794.9%8.113.8+5.7
Week 897.6%3.67.1+3.5

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
9free-agent add + Kirk Cousins not priced yet
8free-agent add − Tank Dell not measurable
8free-agent add + Devin Singletary− Kirk Cousins -2.6 ± 1.3 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Alvin Kamara− Roschon Johnson +2.7 ± 1.1 a modest gain
7waiver claim + Caleb Douglas− Matt Gay +1.2 ± 1.1 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Roschon Johnson− Alvin Kamara +4.7 ± 0.83 a clear gain
7free-agent add − Kimani Vidal not measurable
7free-agent add − Tyler Allgeier -2.1 ± 0.99 a modest loss
7free-agent add + Jeffery Simmons− Payton Wilson +2.1 ± 1.3 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Matt Gay +1.3 ± 1.4 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Kendrick Bourne not measurable
6free-agent add + Tyler Allgeier− Kendrick Bourne +0.6 ± 1.2 no measurable change
6free-agent add − Edgerrin Cooper not measurable
6waiver claim + Kimani Vidal− Jakobi Meyers -1.4 ± 0.81 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Payton Wilson− Keaton Mitchell -0.0 ± 0.52 no measurable change
5free-agent add − Roman Wilson not measurable
5waiver claim + Jakobi Meyers not measurable
5free-agent add + Rachaad White− Dohnte Meyers not measurable
5free-agent add + Keaton Mitchell− Rachaad White -0.5 ± 0.47 no measurable change
5trade got Tony Pollardgave David Montgomery to Rocket Pandas -1.5 ± 0.51 a modest loss
5trade got Tee Higginsgot Tank Dellgave Omarion Hampton to Iron Wombatsgave Davante Adams to Rocket Pandas -0.5 ± 0.35 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Roman Wilson− Nick Cross -1.4 ± 0.52 a modest loss
5waiver claim + Arvell Reese− Andrew Van Ginkel -1.9 ± 0.63 a modest loss
5free-agent add + Dohnte Meyers− Kalif Raymond -0.7 ± 0.98 no measurable change
4waiver claim + Kirk Cousins− Jaylen Wright +1.1 ± 0.75 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Jacob Rodriguez− Jack Campbell -5.6 ± 1.3 a clear loss
4free-agent add − Caleb Douglas +0.9 ± 1.2 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Kalif Raymond− Jake Ferguson +3.3 ± 0.88 a modest gain
4free-agent add − Rachaad White -1.9 ± 0.71 a modest loss
4free-agent add + Jaylen Wright +0.1 ± 1.0 no measurable change
3waiver claim + Rachaad White− Brian Thomas not measurable
3waiver claim + Ollie Gordon− De'Von Achane not measurable
3free-agent add − Darren Waller +1.2 ± 0.59 no measurable change
3trade got Denzel Boston not measurable
3free-agent add + Alvin Kamara +2.8 ± 1.0 a modest gain
3waiver claim + Evan Williams− Malik Mustapha -2.3 ± 1.3 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Malik Mustapha not measurable
2waiver claim + Darren Waller− Devin Singletary -0.8 ± 1.1 no measurable change
2free-agent add + Devin Singletary− Jacob Rodriguez +0.8 ± 0.82 no measurable change
1trade got Malik Nabersgave Caleb Williams to Quantum Ferrets +2.2 ± 1.6 no measurable change
1waiver claim + Jacob Rodriguez− Brian Burns +2.4 ± 1.3 no measurable change
1free-agent add + Devaughn Vele− Xavier Watts not measurable
1free-agent add + Caleb Douglas− Devaughn Vele -4.3 ± 0.90 a clear loss

Against Quantum Ferrets 5–1 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season5W194.63–179.94
202516W141.86–134.48
202511W120.56–96.80
20254W128.04–96.70
20249L140.36–190.24
20242W150.66–132.72