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team · rank 6 of 8

CBCosmic Badgers

7 wins (6–2 head-to-head, 1–7 against the median) · 17–39 all-play · 1211.54 points for, 1077.19 against · streak W2 · 2 back of fourth · 58 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
40.2%
± 0.49
title odds
9.0%
week-9 forecast
final wins
11–17
8 seasons in 10 · median 14
record
7–9
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 IWIron Wombats W 166.55–154.02 L had 58%
Week 2 QFQuantum Ferrets W 150.41–148.52 L had 29%
Week 3 NWNeon Walruses W 146.87–136.29 L had 51%
Week 4 TLTurbo Llamas W 156.78–97.22 L had 30%
Week 5 PYPolar Yetis L 134.54–163.55 L had 47%
Week 6 CMCrimson Marmots L 127.62–147.26 L had 71%
Week 7 RPRocket Pandas W 152.98–146.77 L had 40%
Week 8 IWIron Wombats W 175.79–83.56 W had 62%
Week 9 · this week QFQuantum Ferrets — — — 56%
Week 10 NWNeon Walruses — — — 49%
Week 11 TLTurbo Llamas — — — 51%
Week 12 PYPolar Yetis — — — 52%
Week 13 CMCrimson Marmots — — — 70%
Week 14 RPRocket Pandas — — — 48%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
Romeo Doubs WRIRShoulder—Oct 22, 1:35 am
Travis Etienne Jr. RBIRHamstring—StrainNov 2, 5:40 pm
A.J. Brown WRQuestionableAnkle—Nov 4, 6:35 pm
Jevón Holland DBQuestionableConcussion—Nov 2, 8:40 pm
Michael Wilson WRQuestionableRibs—FractureNov 2, 2:20 am

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Kenneth Walker IIIRBKC20.8
10th 10.7 · 25th 16.4 · median 24.6 · 75th 36.0 · 90th 50.4 · mean 28.011–50
 5+9.7
Dak PrescottQBDAL19.7
10th 9.5 · 25th 13.3 · median 19.0 · 75th 27.0 · 90th 36.7 · mean 21.510–37
 14-0.0
Puka NacuaWRLAR19.5
10th 7.9 · 25th 12.0 · median 18.1 · 75th 26.5 · 90th 37.0 · mean 20.78–37
 11+7.2
D'Andre SwiftRBCHI14.9
10th 7.1 · 25th 10.9 · median 16.9 · 75th 25.4 · 90th 36.6 · mean 19.97–37
 10+5.4
Brandon AubreyKDAL12.8
10th 4.7 · 25th 7.0 · median 10.7 · 75th 16.1 · 90th 23.2 · mean 12.75–23
 14-0.4
Nick BoltonLBKC12.2
10th 4.7 · 25th 7.2 · median 11.1 · 75th 17.2 · 90th 25.3 · mean 13.65–25
 5-0.2
A.J. BrownWRNE11.1
10th 1.1 · 25th 2.4 · median 4.9 · 75th 9.3 · 90th 16.3 · mean 7.41–16
 11Questionable-4.0
Terrel BernardLBBUF10.7
10th 3.6 · 25th 5.5 · median 8.6 · 75th 13.6 · 90th 20.5 · mean 10.84–20
 7-0.9
Michael WilsonWRARI10.7
10th 2.3 · 25th 3.9 · median 6.7 · 75th 11.1 · 90th 17.3 · mean 8.72–17
 14Questionable+0.6
Rhamondre StevensonRBNE10.5
10th 2.9 · 25th 5.1 · median 8.8 · 75th 14.7 · 90th 22.8 · mean 11.43–23
 11+0.0
Travis Etienne Jr.RBNO10.5
10th 1.9 · 25th 3.7 · median 6.9 · 75th 12.4 · 90th 20.2 · mean 9.62–20
 8IR-1.3
Travis HunterDBJAX10.0
10th 3.6 · 25th 5.6 · median 8.9 · 75th 13.8 · 90th 20.6 · mean 10.94–21
 7+0.5
Travis KelceTEKC9.9
10th 2.8 · 25th 4.8 · median 8.5 · 75th 14.6 · 90th 23.7 · mean 11.53–24
 5+0.7
Ladd McConkeyWRLAC9.8
10th 1.8 · 25th 3.3 · median 6.0 · 75th 10.4 · 90th 16.8 · mean 8.12–17
 7-1.6
Rome OdunzeWRCHI9.1
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.8 · median 6.9 · 75th 11.8 · 90th 18.8 · mean 9.22–19
 10-3.5
Greg RousseauDEBUF8.8
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.6 · median 6.5 · 75th 11.7 · 90th 19.6 · mean 9.32–20
 7+1.9
Xavier WorthyWRKC8.1
10th 1.7 · 25th 3.2 · median 6.2 · 75th 10.9 · 90th 18.1 · mean 8.62–18
 5-4.7
Kyle Pitts Sr.TEATL8.0
10th 1.5 · 25th 2.8 · median 5.3 · 75th 9.5 · 90th 15.8 · mean 7.52–16
 11-0.6
Romeo DoubsWRNE7.9
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.1 · median 7.1 · 75th 11.7 · 90th 18.1 · mean 9.12–18
 11IR-2.4
Andrew Van GinkelLBMIN7.8
10th 2.4 · 25th 3.7 · median 6.1 · 75th 9.9 · 90th 15.2 · mean 7.92–15
 6-2.5
Jevón HollandDBNYG7.2
10th 2.3 · 25th 3.7 · median 5.9 · 75th 9.7 · 90th 14.8 · mean 7.62–15
 8Questionable-1.2

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 1100.0%0.032.6+32.6 *
Week 297.3%3.926.8+22.9 *
Week 395.3%6.95.0-1.9 *
Week 499.6%0.635.1+34.5
Week 5100.0%0.010.4+10.4
Week 698.4%2.649.0+46.4
Week 7100.0%0.04.4+4.4
Week 896.1%6.511.8+5.3

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
6waiver claim + Andrew Van Ginkel +2.7 ± 0.58 a clear gain
6free-agent add − Jared Goff not measurable
4free-agent add − Josiah Trotter +0.8 ± 1.4 no measurable change
4trade got Xavier Worthygot Nick Bolton +2.8 ± 0.71 a modest gain
4free-agent add − Jordan Mason not measurable
3waiver claim + Michael Wilson− Kaelon Black +8.8 ± 1.1 a clear gain
3free-agent add + Terrel Bernard− Antonio Williams +10.6 ± 1.5 a clear gain
3free-agent add + Jevon Holland− Calen Bullock -1.3 ± 1.1 no measurable change
2trade got Ladd McConkeygave Jalen Coker to Quantum Ferrets -6.3 ± 1.1 a clear loss
2trade got Travis Huntergave DK Metcalf to Rocket Pandas not measurable
2free-agent add + Antonio Williams +1.9 ± 1.2 no measurable change
1waiver claim + Calen Bullock− Chamarri Conner -8.4 ± 1.7 a clear loss
1waiver claim + Kaelon Black− Tyrone Tracy +7.6 ± 1.00 a clear gain
1waiver claim + Romeo Doubs +3.4 ± 0.97 a modest gain
1waiver claim + Josiah Trotter− Roquan Smith -26.6 ± 1.6 a clear loss
1waiver claim + Greg Rousseau− Nick Bosa -3.4 ± 0.89 a modest loss
1waiver claim + Jalen Coker− Dylan Sampson +3.8 ± 1.1 a modest gain
1trade got Tyrone Tracygave Josh Jacobs to Polar Yetis -6.1 ± 1.0 a clear loss

Against Quantum Ferrets 1–4 for Quantum Ferrets in every meeting

SeasonWeekResult for Quantum FerretsScore
this season2L148.52–150.41
20259L126.88–132.96
20252L144.74–162.70
202411W209.32–205.10
20244L175.54–184.10