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team · rank 4 of 8 · mine

QFQuantum Ferrets

9 wins (4–4 head-to-head, 5–3 against the median) · 31–25 all-play · 1290.31 points for, 1314.45 against · streak L1 · 2 clear of fifth · 4 of 100 FAAB left. How the dice fell

playoff odds
66.1%
± 0.47
title odds
14.2%
week-9 forecast
final wins
12–18
8 seasons in 10 · median 15
record
9–7
both weekly games

Season chance to win: the pre-game odds for weeks played, the week-9 forecast for the rest

WeekOpponentResultScoreMedianChance to win
Week 1 CMCrimson Marmots W 187.36–182.03 W had 55%
Week 2 CBCosmic Badgers L 148.52–150.41 L had 71%
Week 3 IWIron Wombats L 173.52–188.76 W had 79%
Week 4 RPRocket Pandas L 148.62–195.83 L had 72%
Week 5 NWNeon Walruses W 194.63–179.94 W had 73%
Week 6 TLTurbo Llamas L 144.53–155.98 W had 36%
Week 7 PYPolar Yetis W 158.80–146.08 W had 64%
Week 8 CMCrimson Marmots W 134.33–115.42 L had 67%
Week 9 · this week CBCosmic Badgers — — — 44%
Week 10 IWIron Wombats — — — 66%
Week 11 RPRocket Pandas — — — 47%
Week 12 NWNeon Walruses — — — 46%
Week 13 TLTurbo Llamas — — — 49%
Week 14 PYPolar Yetis — — — 50%

Injuries and practice Sleeper's report, most serious first

PlayerStatusInjuryPracticeNotesUpdated
David Bailey LBIRGroin—Nov 4, 6:30 pm
DeVonta Smith WRIRHamstring—Oct 30, 8:50 pm
Breece Hall RBQuestionableQuadriceps—Nov 4, 5:55 pm
Christian Watson WRQuestionableUndisclosed—Nov 4, 7:25 pm
Jakobi Meyers WRQuestionableHamstring—Nov 3, 10:20 pm

Roster likely range: one week's points, 10th to 90th percentile, from the week-9 forecast

PlayerPosNFLPoints a weekLikely rangeByeStatusValue over replacement
Jahmyr GibbsRBDET23.6
10th 13.4 · 25th 19.4 · median 28.2 · 75th 40.1 · 90th 55.1 · mean 31.413–55
 6+13.7
Jayden DanielsQBWAS19.2
10th 8.8 · 25th 12.3 · median 17.7 · 75th 25.1 · 90th 34.1 · mean 20.09–34
 7+1.9
Caleb WilliamsQBCHI17.9
10th 8.2 · 25th 11.8 · median 17.3 · 75th 24.9 · 90th 34.3 · mean 19.78–34
 10-1.5
Javonte WilliamsRBDAL16.8
10th 5.9 · 25th 9.5 · median 15.4 · 75th 24.1 · 90th 35.4 · mean 18.76–35
 14+4.9
Christian WatsonWRGB13.4
10th 4.9 · 25th 7.7 · median 12.1 · 75th 18.2 · 90th 25.9 · mean 14.15–26
 11Questionable+4.0
Chris OlaveWRNO12.0
10th 5.2 · 25th 8.0 · median 12.2 · 75th 18.4 · 90th 26.2 · mean 14.45–26
 8+2.7
Will ReichardKMIN11.8
10th 5.9 · 25th 8.1 · median 11.5 · 75th 16.1 · 90th 21.7 · mean 12.96–22
 6+3.0
Woody MarksRBHOU11.6
10th 1.7 · 25th 3.3 · median 6.5 · 75th 12.0 · 90th 20.3 · mean 9.52–20
 8-1.8
Trey McBrideTEARI11.3
10th 3.5 · 25th 5.5 · median 8.9 · 75th 14.0 · 90th 21.1 · mean 11.14–21
 14+6.5
Jalen CokerWRCAR10.7
10th 2.7 · 25th 4.9 · median 8.4 · 75th 13.6 · 90th 20.4 · mean 10.43–20
 5+0.2
DeVonta SmithWRPHI10.0
10th 3.7 · 25th 6.1 · median 9.8 · 75th 15.4 · 90th 22.6 · mean 11.94–23
 10IR+2.0
Rachaad WhiteRBWAS9.8
10th 1.8 · 25th 3.3 · median 6.0 · 75th 10.7 · 90th 17.6 · mean 8.42–18
 7-1.2
Blake CashmanLBMIN9.0
10th 3.8 · 25th 5.7 · median 8.7 · 75th 13.1 · 90th 19.0 · mean 10.44–19
 6+0.4
Malik WashingtonWRMIA8.5
10th 2.0 · 25th 3.5 · median 6.0 · 75th 10.1 · 90th 16.2 · mean 8.02–16
 6-2.8
Breece HallRBNYJ8.5
10th 2.4 · 25th 4.0 · median 6.8 · 75th 11.3 · 90th 17.2 · mean 8.72–17
 13Questionable+0.6
Jakobi MeyersWRJAX8.4
10th 2.1 · 25th 3.9 · median 7.0 · 75th 11.9 · 90th 19.0 · mean 9.32–19
 7Questionable-3.3
Budda BakerDBARI8.4
10th 2.7 · 25th 4.1 · median 6.4 · 75th 9.8 · 90th 14.4 · mean 7.73–14
 14+1.7
Omar Cooper Jr.WRNYJ7.9
10th 2.6 · 25th 4.4 · median 7.4 · 75th 11.9 · 90th 17.6 · mean 9.13–18
 13-0.8
David BaileyLBNYJ7.5
10th 2.2 · 25th 3.4 · median 5.6 · 75th 9.1 · 90th 13.8 · mean 7.12–14
 13IR-2.1
Boye MafeDLCIN7.4
10th 1.4 · 25th 2.6 · median 5.0 · 75th 9.3 · 90th 16.5 · mean 7.71–17
 6-0.2
Seth McGowanRBIND5.3
10th 0.3 · 25th 0.7 · median 1.8 · 75th 4.6 · 90th 10.0 · mean 3.90–10
 13-7.1

Lineup calls, judged before the games judged on the projections before kickoff, not on how the games went

WeekBefore the gamesLeft on the bench, expectedLeft on the bench, in hindsightNot a decision
Week 199.6%0.833.4+32.6
Week 298.6%2.515.8+13.4 *
Week 399.7%0.633.8+33.2 *
Week 496.9%5.434.9+29.5 *
Week 597.3%4.65.9+1.3
Week 698.3%2.69.5+6.9 *
Week 798.3%3.018.6+15.6 *
Week 897.9%3.57.8+4.3 *

Before the games: the lineup's projected points as a share of the best lineup the roster allowed; 100% means no better call was available. In hindsight uses the points actually scored, so it also counts a good call that didn't pan out; the gap between the two is not a decision but luck.

Moves what each move was worth in playoff odds, measured when it was made

WeekMovePlayersEffectVerdict
8waiver claim + Malik Washington− Chris Godwin Jr. not priced yet
8free-agent add + Chris Godwin Jr.− Jaydon Blue +0.2 ± 0.72 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Boye Mafe− Rico Dowdle +0.9 ± 1.2 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Jakobi Meyers +1.4 ± 0.90 no measurable change
8free-agent add + Jaydon Blue +0.1 ± 1.0 no measurable change
8free-agent add − J.K. Dobbins +0.9 ± 1.4 no measurable change
8free-agent add − Juwan Johnson not measurable
8free-agent add + Rico Dowdle− Chris Godwin Jr. +0.6 ± 0.96 no measurable change
7waiver claim + Rachaad White− RJ Harvey +1.7 ± 0.81 a modest gain
7waiver claim + Blake Cashman− Jack Campbell -2.1 ± 0.87 a modest loss
7free-agent add + Seth McGowan -0.7 ± 0.77 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Chris Godwin Jr. +1.3 ± 1.0 no measurable change
7free-agent add + RJ Harvey− Foyesade Oluokun not measurable
7free-agent add + J.K. Dobbins− Brian Robinson Jr. not measurable
7free-agent add − Patrick Mahomes -0.6 ± 1.00 no measurable change
7free-agent add − Nick Folk -0.3 ± 0.72 no measurable change
7free-agent add + Jack Campbell +1.9 ± 0.51 a modest gain
6waiver claim + Omar Cooper− Dameon Pierce +1.6 ± 0.75 a modest gain
6free-agent add + Jayden Daniels− Brenton Strange +1.3 ± 1.6 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Dameon Pierce− J.K. Dobbins +2.4 ± 1.9 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Budda Baker− Malaki Starks +0.5 ± 0.85 no measurable change
6free-agent add − Blake Cashman not measurable
6free-agent add − Sam Darnold -1.4 ± 0.76 no measurable change
6waiver claim + Woody Marks− Malik Washington not measurable
6waiver claim + David Bailey− Byron Young not measurable
6free-agent add + Nick Folk− Braelon Allen -2.6 ± 1.4 no measurable change
6free-agent add + J.K. Dobbins -0.8 ± 1.4 no measurable change
6free-agent add + Brenton Strange− Khalil Shakir +0.3 ± 1.5 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Blake Cashman− Roquan Smith +2.9 ± 1.0 a modest gain
5free-agent add + Khalil Shakir− Jakobi Meyers -3.8 ± 1.1 a modest loss
5free-agent add + Sam Darnold− Kenyon Sadiq -0.8 ± 1.2 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Malik Washington− Dontayvion Wicks -1.0 ± 0.97 no measurable change
5free-agent add + Byron Young− Danielle Hunter +2.9 ± 0.89 a modest gain
4free-agent add + Jakobi Meyers− Fred Warner +2.0 ± 0.58 a modest gain
4free-agent add + Kenyon Sadiq− Jordan Love -0.2 ± 0.76 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Foyesade Oluokun -0.5 ± 0.51 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Fred Warner not measurable
4trade gave Xavier Worthy to Cosmic Badgersgave Nick Bolton to Cosmic Badgers -0.9 ± 1.1 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Brian Robinson− Donovan Ezeiruaku -0.5 ± 0.70 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Dontayvion Wicks− Blake Cashman +0.9 ± 0.86 no measurable change
4free-agent add + Will Reichard− Harrison Butker +2.6 ± 0.70 a modest gain
4free-agent add + Blake Cashman +2.3 ± 0.76 a modest gain
4free-agent add + Malaki Starks− Cole Bishop +2.0 ± 0.66 a modest gain
4waiver claim + Braelon Allen− Emanuel Wilson +1.0 ± 0.63 no measurable change
4waiver claim + Danielle Hunter− Tuli Tuipulotu +1.9 ± 0.77 a modest gain
3free-agent add + Juwan Johnson− Mark Andrews -0.1 ± 0.37 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Donovan Ezeiruaku− Fred Warner +0.9 ± 0.70 no measurable change
3waiver claim + Emanuel Wilson− Eddy Pineiro -0.8 ± 0.45 no measurable change
3free-agent add + Xavier Worthy− Tykee Smith +0.6 ± 0.61 no measurable change
2trade got Jalen Cokergave Ladd McConkey to Cosmic Badgers +2.3 ± 0.64 a modest gain
3free-agent add + Jordan Love− Khalil Shakir +1.8 ± 0.76 a modest gain
2waiver claim + Patrick Mahomes +9.8 ± 0.77 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Harrison Butker− Cairo Santos +1.6 ± 0.69 a modest gain
2free-agent add + Mark Andrews− Jayden Daniels -0.9 ± 0.75 no measurable change
2free-agent add + Tykee Smith− Tony Pollard +3.1 ± 0.60 a clear gain
2free-agent add + Cairo Santos− RJ Harvey +1.4 ± 0.56 a modest gain
2waiver claim + Roquan Smith− Jonathon Brooks +2.3 ± 0.42 a clear gain
2free-agent add + Khalil Shakir− Mike Washington +3.1 ± 0.53 a clear gain
1trade got Caleb Williamsgave Malik Nabers to Neon Walruses +3.0 ± 0.69 a clear gain
2waiver claim + Eddy Pineiro− Harrison Mevis +2.4 ± 0.58 a clear gain
1waiver claim + Cole Bishop− Kam Curl +1.1 ± 1.0 no measurable change
1free-agent add + Mike Washington− J.K. Dobbins not measurable
1free-agent add + Harrison Mevis− Jason Myers -1.3 ± 0.99 no measurable change
1free-agent add + Tuli Tuipulotu− Danielle Hunter +7.0 ± 1.1 a clear gain
1free-agent add + Nick Bolton− Courtland Sutton -1.3 ± 1.5 no measurable change