Week 9

The rest of the season as the model saw it going into week 9.

my playoff odds

66.1%

± 0.47 simulation noise

expected final wins

15.13

9 banked · 6.13 still to come

points so far

1290.3

as the league counted them

wins to clinch

approximate

Playoff odds every team

playoff probability

RPRocket Pandas95.7%TLTurbo Llamas92.5%NWNeon Walruses89.7%QFQuantum Ferrets66.1%CBCosmic Badgers40.2%PYPolar Yetis7.8%IWIron Wombats6.9%CMCrimson Marmots1.0%

title probability

RPRocket Pandas26.0%NWNeon Walruses25.5%TLTurbo Llamas22.4%QFQuantum Ferrets14.2%CBCosmic Badgers9.0%PYPolar Yetis2.0%IWIron Wombats0.9%CMCrimson Marmots0.1%

Every team sorted by playoff odds · click a column to sort

Team	Wins	Points	Exp. wins	Exp. points	Playoff	Title	Last place	To clinch	Budget
RPRocket Pandas	11	1395.8	18.13	2457	95.7% ± 0.20	26.0%	0.0%	5	42
TLTurbo Llamas	11	1361.5	17.66	2404	92.5% ± 0.26	22.4%	0.0%	5	44
NWNeon Walruses	10	1359.0	17.10	2419	89.7% ± 0.30	25.5%	0.0%	6	7
QFQuantum Ferrets	9	1290.3	15.13	2323	66.1% ± 0.47	14.2%	0.6%	7	4
CBCosmic Badgers	7	1211.5	13.69	2261	40.2% ± 0.49	9.0%	2.7%	9	58
PYPolar Yetis	4	1248.4	10.56	2286	7.8% ± 0.27	2.0%	18.1%	12	20
IWIron Wombats	7	1225.8	11.08	2143	6.9% ± 0.25	0.9%	16.8%	9	16
CMCrimson Marmots	5	1209.8	8.66	2104	1.0% ± 0.10	0.1%	61.7%	11	0

Roster value the best lineup's projected points, plus a tenth of the bench

projected points a week

QFQuantum Ferrets192.0 ptsNWNeon Walruses188.3 ptsRPRocket Pandas186.1 ptsTLTurbo Llamas182.2 ptsIWIron Wombats177.2 ptsPYPolar Yetis171.1 ptsCBCosmic Badgers169.4 ptsCMCrimson Marmots160.8 pts

Roster strength, not a forecast.

Expected wins, week by week every team · yours in green

view as table

	wk 1	wk 2	wk 3	wk 4	wk 5	wk 6	wk 7	wk 8	wk 9	wk 10	wk 11	wk 12	wk 13	wk 14
Rocket Pandas	1.0	3.0	5.0	7.0	9.0	9.0	9.0	11.0	12.1	13.3	14.5	15.7	16.8	18.1
Turbo Llamas	2.0	4.0	5.0	5.0	7.0	9.0	10.0	11.0	12.1	13.2	14.0	15.2	16.5	17.7
Neon Walruses	0.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	6.0	8.0	10.0	11.3	12.5	13.9	15.0	16.1	17.1
Quantum Ferrets	2.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	5.0	6.0	8.0	9.0	10.0	11.1	12.1	13.2	14.2	15.1
Cosmic Badgers	1.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	5.0	7.0	8.2	9.1	10.4	11.6	12.8	13.7
Polar Yetis	1.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0	5.0	6.0	7.1	8.1	9.4	10.6
Iron Wombats	0.0	0.0	2.0	4.0	4.0	5.0	7.0	7.0	7.7	8.5	9.0	9.6	10.1	11.1
Crimson Marmots	1.0	1.0	1.0	3.0	3.0	5.0	5.0	5.0	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.5	8.1	8.7

Quantum Ferretsevery other teamexpected wins to date (two games a week)

Where each team finishes chance of each seed · darker green is likelier

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8
Rocket Pandas	40%	28%	18%	10%	3%	1%	0%	0%
Turbo Llamas	28%	29%	22%	13%	5%	2%	0%	0%
Neon Walruses	25%	25%	24%	16%	8%	2%	1%	0%
Quantum Ferrets	6%	12%	20%	27%	20%	9%	4%	1%
Cosmic Badgers	1%	5%	12%	23%	31%	17%	9%	3%
Polar Yetis	0%	0%	2%	6%	16%	28%	30%	18%
Iron Wombats	0%	0%	1%	5%	13%	29%	34%	17%
Crimson Marmots	0%	0%	0%	1%	4%	11%	23%	62%

Head to head chance the row team beats the column team · blue favours the row, red the column

	RP	TL	NW	QF	CB	PY	IW	CM
RPRocket Pandas	·	53	50	53	52	53	70	72
TLTurbo Llamas	47	·	48	51	49	51	67	70
NWNeon Walruses	50	52	·	54	51	53	69	72
QFQuantum Ferrets	47	49	46	·	48	50	66	69
CBCosmic Badgers	48	51	49	52	·	52	68	70
PYPolar Yetis	47	49	47	50	48	·	66	69
IWIron Wombats	30	33	31	34	32	34	·	53
CMCrimson Marmots	28	30	28	31	30	31	47	·

Floors and ceilings season wins and weekly score: a bad year · typical · a great year

Team	Season wins	Mean	Weekly score	Mean
RPRocket Pandas	15 · 18 · 21	18.1	134 · 177 · 225	176.8 sd 36
TLTurbo Llamas	15 · 18 · 21	17.7	130 · 174 · 222	173.8 sd 37
NWNeon Walruses	14 · 17 · 20	17.1	133 · 177 · 225	176.7 sd 37
QFQuantum Ferrets	12 · 15 · 18	15.1	129 · 172 · 219	172.2 sd 35
CBCosmic Badgers	11 · 14 · 17	13.7	130 · 175 · 225	174.9 sd 37
PYPolar Yetis	8 · 11 · 13	10.6	129 · 173 · 222	172.9 sd 37
IWIron Wombats	8 · 11 · 14	11.1	114 · 153 · 197	152.8 sd 33
CMCrimson Marmots	6 · 8 · 11	8.7	110 · 149 · 192	149.0 sd 33

Strength of schedule implied points for each offence, week by week · darker is more · gold line: the fantasy playoffs

NFL team	Average	wk 9	wk 10	wk 11	wk 12	wk 13	wk 14	wk 15	wk 16
SF	28.8	31.2	31.2	27.3	27.6	30.1	28.4	29.5	28.0
KC	27.6	28.8	29.0	31.1	28.9	27.2	28.7	27.3	27.8
CIN	27.2	27.8	24.3	27.6	27.0	25.8	24.5	27.2	27.2
DET	26.7	28.8	26.5	26.8	27.0	28.2	29.3	25.3	28.1
JAX	26.6	24.8	28.0	26.9	28.0	25.8	24.6	25.3	27.9
CHI	26.2	26.8	BYE	27.3	26.6	25.0	28.0	26.9	25.4
LAR	25.9	26.5	28.8	BYE	25.2	24.5	25.6	27.7	24.1
DAL	25.8	28.5	26.6	28.8	26.4	25.1	BYE	25.9	25.7
DEN	25.2	23.5	BYE	25.9	22.1	25.5	24.7	25.9	24.4
SEA	24.9	24.5	27.9	BYE	25.3	27.4	26.4	25.1	24.7
NO	24.6	22.8	24.7	23.0	23.9	22.7	24.7	22.8	26.3
NE	24.2	24.8	24.8	BYE	24.5	25.2	22.3	23.0	25.4
TEN	23.8	BYE	20.9	23.8	20.9	23.7	22.4	23.3	24.3
ATL	23.4	24.8	21.5	BYE	20.8	23.3	22.8	24.6	22.3
BUF	23.4	24.5	25.4	26.2	23.0	23.5	23.7	24.0	22.9
HOU	22.8	22.5	23.5	25.0	23.7	22.1	25.3	22.5	23.1
NYG	22.8	21.0	24.3	21.5	24.0	22.3	20.9	22.5	23.1
PIT	22.7	BYE	22.6	21.5	20.5	21.2	20.9	22.1	23.3
IND	22.6	23.0	23.2	20.6	22.1	BYE	20.9	23.3	21.9
GB	22.1	21.8	19.3	BYE	20.4	22.5	22.2	23.2	21.0
MIN	21.9	21.0	20.2	20.6	21.8	22.2	20.0	21.3	22.6
TB	21.1	20.8	BYE	20.6	21.4	20.3	20.2	21.3	21.0
CLE	20.8	19.8	19.6	BYE	22.6	20.9	21.2	21.1	20.5
CAR	20.6	21.0	22.3	21.2	20.6	19.0	22.3	21.7	19.6
MIA	20.1	21.8	21.7	21.2	21.4	18.9	20.0	19.7	20.5
LAC	19.9	18.0	19.2	20.2	18.3	18.6	21.4	18.8	21.0
WAS	19.8	21.0	21.1	20.9	23.3	22.3	19.6	21.2	18.3
LV	19.6	21.2	17.6	17.9	19.3	BYE	19.5	17.9	21.3
NYJ	19.2	18.8	18.9	18.3	20.0	BYE	16.6	21.1	17.3
ARI	18.2	16.0	16.2	15.8	18.8	16.6	BYE	18.2	18.3
PHI	17.9	17.5	BYE	17.6	20.9	22.1	20.5	17.4	18.3
BAL	15.3	14.8	16.3	17.4	15.3	BYE	15.6	14.6	16.0

Each roster's average

Team	Average	wk 9	wk 10	wk 11	wk 12	wk 13	wk 14	wk 15	wk 16
CBCosmic Badgers	24.6	24.9	24.8	25.0	24.9	24.2	24.3	24.4	24.8
PYPolar Yetis	24.6	25.2	24.4	24.5	24.5	24.7	24.3	24.8	24.4
RPRocket Pandas	23.7	24.1	23.9	23.1	23.2	23.5	23.7	24.0	23.4
TLTurbo Llamas	23.5	23.5	23.4	23.0	23.7	23.9	23.6	23.4	23.6
NWNeon Walruses	23.1	22.9	22.8	23.0	23.2	23.2	22.6	22.6	23.5
CMCrimson Marmots	22.7	22.9	23.2	22.5	22.9	23.5	22.2	23.0	22.3
QFQuantum Ferrets	21.9	21.9	21.7	21.8	22.7	22.2	21.7	22.2	21.7
IWIron Wombats	21.9	21.8	22.3	21.7	21.5	22.3	21.4	21.8	21.9

Averages cover the window chosen above. Higher means an easier week for that team's offensive players; hover a cell for the opponent.

Who wins titles how often each player starts for the simulated champion

Highest single-week score in the simulations: 411.07, by Cosmic Badgers in week 12.

Player	In the champion's lineup	Avg. points those weeks
Jahmyr Gibbs	13.0%	33.8
Joe Burrow	19.4%	28.4
Kenneth Walker III	8.2%	28.4
Brock Purdy	6.3%	27.6
Trevor Lawrence	1.8%	27.2
Jared Goff	12.0%	26.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.8%	26.4
Drake Maye	0.8%	26.4
Josh Allen	10.1%	25.4
Dak Prescott	8.4%	22.8
Amon-Ra St. Brown	1.7%	22.8
Christian McCaffrey	22.1%	22.6
Bijan Robinson	0.8%	22.1
Jonathan Taylor	0.8%	21.6
Ja'Marr Chase	19.3%	21.2
Caleb Williams	11.5%	20.8
Bhayshul Tuten	21.7%	20.6
Kirk Cousins	22.6%	20.3
Puka Nacua	7.9%	20.2
D'Andre Swift	8.0%	20.0