luck · 8 weeks played
Five measures, each set before the season started and each compared with the rest of the league, so the model's own mistakes don't count as luck. They're shown side by side, never added into one number.
| Measure | Value | Which way | Real or noise? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schedule luck head-to-head wins minus the wins your all-play record would give you |
-0.71 ± 1.3 wins |
unlucky | noise (z -0.56, p 0.575) |
| Opponent luck points scored against you per game, compared with the league average |
+8.58 ± 4.4 points a game |
unlucky | significant (z +1.97, p 0.049) |
| Close games wins in head-to-head games decided by less than 10 points, minus half of those games |
+0.50 ± 0.50 wins |
lucky | noise (z +1.00, p 0.317) |
| Starters who did not play starters who scored zero, per game, compared with the league average |
— | can't be measured here: the weekly results record each player's points but not who started | |
| Scoring luck how far your weekly scores beat the projection, in spreads, compared with the league |
+0.03 ± 0.13 spreads |
lucky | noise (z +0.21, p 0.834) |
| Measure | Value | Which way | Real or noise? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast luck head-to-head wins minus the model's pre-game win chances, added up |
+0.33 ± 1.4 wins, over 8 weeks |
lucky | noise (z +0.24, p 0.810) |
| Median luck median wins minus the model's pre-game chances of beating the median, compared with the league average |
+1.40 ± 1.4 wins, over 8 weeks |
lucky | noise (z +1.00, p 0.316) |
Added late, but written down before anything had computed them. Like the five above, each stands alone.
| Team \ schedule of | CB | CM | IW | NW | PY | QF | RP | TL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cosmic Badgers | 6–2 | 2–6 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 1–7 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Crimson Marmots | 6–2 | 2–6 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 4–4 | 0–8 | 2–6 | 3–5 |
| Iron Wombats | 4–4 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 2–6 | 6–2 | 3–5 | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Neon Walruses | 6–2 | 6–2 | 3–5 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 6–2 | 5–3 |
| Polar Yetis | 6–2 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Quantum Ferrets | 6–2 | 5–3 | 3–5 | 5–3 | 5–3 | 4–4 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Rocket Pandas | 6–2 | 6–2 | 6–2 | 4–4 | 7–1 | 4–4 | 5–3 | 5–3 |
| Turbo Llamas | 7–1 | 7–1 | 5–3 | 6–2 | 5–3 | 6–2 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Each week, the row team's score goes up against the column team's opponent; in the week those two teams met, it goes up against the column team. The outlined diagonal is each team's own record.