Weekly report -- Quantum Ferrets, week 1

Sanitized sample. Team names are fictional; NFL players and projections are real, from a live data pull on 2026-09-15. League identifiers and the real decision log are not published. Generated by scripts/make_sample_report.py.

League · Season outlook · Roster grade · Lineup · Matchup · Waivers · Trades · Decision log

2026-09-15T03:37:26Z -> 2026-09-15T03:54:51Z UTC

Sync for week 1 completed 2026-09-15T03:37:33Z UTC (129 routine notices).

DEGRADED -- the sync tolerated these failures

League this week -- all matchups (n=5000, cross-roster copula)

MatchupP(A wins)P(B wins)± SEA expectedB expectedMargin std dev
Neon Walruses v Polar Yetis56.9%43.1%0.7150.7143.447.6
Rocket Pandas v Turbo Llamas48.7%51.3%0.7151.8153.747.6
Cosmic Badgers v Iron Wombats36.6%63.4%0.7133.6149.145.2
Quantum Ferrets v Crimson Marmots55.1%44.9%0.7161.9155.549.7
TeamOpponentP(>= median)ExpectedStd dev
Quantum FerretsCrimson Marmots63.2%161.937.2
Crimson MarmotsQuantum Ferrets57.7%155.533.6
Turbo LlamasRocket Pandas55.0%153.733.7
Rocket PandasTurbo Llamas52.2%151.834.3
Neon WalrusesPolar Yetis50.3%150.733.0
Iron WombatsCosmic Badgers49.3%149.132.6
Polar YetisNeon Walruses41.6%143.434.4
Cosmic BadgersIron Wombats30.7%133.631.5

Assumed optimal lineups (max-expectation, the engine's rule)

Quantum Ferrets -- expected 161.9, std dev 37.2, vs Crimson Marmots
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBKam CurlLAR9.05.3
DLTuli TuipulotuLAC11.57.9
FLEXMalik NabersNYG11.39.2
FLEXDeVonta SmithPHI14.311.2
FLEXJahmyr GibbsDET20.315.6
KHarrison MevisLAR11.46.9
LBNick BoltonKC10.55.8
QBJayden DanielsWAS14.98.2
RBJavonte WilliamsDAL15.712.9
RBBreece HallNYJ17.214.2
TETrey McBrideARI10.78.6
WRLadd McConkeyLAC13.010.2
WRChris OlaveNO12.39.3
Cosmic Badgers -- expected 133.6, std dev 31.5, vs Iron Wombats
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DLNick BosaSF7.35.9
FLEXRhamondre StevensonNE11.69.6
FLEXKenneth WalkerKC10.99.5
FLEXPuka NacuaLAR17.412.7
KBrandon AubreyDAL11.87.1
LBRoquan SmithBAL11.86.2
QBDak PrescottDAL18.49.9
RBD'Andre SwiftCHI12.110.3
RBTravis EtienneNO13.611.2
TEKyle PittsATL6.85.9
WRRome OdunzeCHI10.28.1
WRDK MetcalfPIT10.48.7
Crimson Marmots -- expected 155.5, std dev 33.6, vs Quantum Ferrets
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBDerwin JamesLAC11.66.2
DLMaxx CrosbyLV10.87.6
FLEXHarold FanninCLE8.57.1
FLEXKenny GainwellTB10.99.6
FLEXNico CollinsHOU13.410.2
KKa'imi FairbairnHOU10.86.6
LBJordyn BrooksMIA11.76.6
QBJalen HurtsPHI24.012.7
RBQuinshon JudkinsCLE11.09.3
RBDerrick HenryBAL15.513.0
TESam LaPortaDET10.07.9
WRCeeDee LambDAL14.210.5
WRGeorge PickensDAL13.110.1
Iron Wombats -- expected 149.1, std dev 32.6, vs Cosmic Badgers
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBKyle HamiltonBAL10.95.7
DLJared VerseCLE8.06.3
FLEXJeremiyah LoveARI10.99.8
FLEXChris GodwinTB9.37.8
FLEXJonathan TaylorIND16.012.9
KCameron DickerLAC12.27.4
LBCarson SchwesingerCLE10.86.1
QBJaxson DartNYG20.310.6
RBRico DowdlePIT12.010.1
RBBijan RobinsonATL15.112.2
TETyler WarrenIND10.08.0
WRTee HigginsCIN12.49.6
WRDrake LondonATL10.18.1
Neon Walruses -- expected 150.7, std dev 33.0, vs Polar Yetis
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBNick CrossWAS8.44.7
DLBrian BurnsNYG11.07.8
FLEXBhayshul TutenJAX10.39.1
FLEXJaylen WaddleDEN10.38.4
FLEXDe'Von AchaneMIA17.714.0
KCam LittleJAX11.26.7
LBJack CampbellDET13.26.9
QBLamar JacksonBAL20.010.3
RBChristian McCaffreySF15.712.8
RBDavid MontgomeryHOU13.011.0
TEJake FergusonDAL7.66.9
WRDavante AdamsLAR11.39.0
WRJameson WilliamsDET11.28.9
Polar Yetis -- expected 143.4, std dev 34.4, vs Neon Walruses
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBCaleb DownsDAL9.05.2
DLWill AndersonHOU9.36.8
FLEXRashee RiceKC9.47.7
FLEXChase BrownCIN14.612.3
FLEXQuentin JohnstonLAC10.68.9
KChase McLaughlinTB10.66.4
QBJustin HerbertLAC21.711.6
RBCam SkatteboNYG14.011.7
RBKyren WilliamsLAR13.211.2
TEColston LovelandCHI10.68.8
WRJustin JeffersonMIN13.710.1
WRAmon-Ra St. BrownDET16.111.8
Rocket Pandas -- expected 151.8, std dev 34.3, vs Turbo Llamas
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBTravis HunterJAX3.02.8
DLT.J. WattPIT10.05.8
FLEXChuba HubbardCAR10.59.6
FLEXJames CookBUF12.810.6
FLEXJaylen WarrenPIT12.110.3
KJake BatesDET11.87.0
LBNakobe DeanLV13.37.1
QBJoe BurrowCIN20.010.8
RBOmarion HamptonLAC17.714.3
RBAshton JeantyLV17.614.2
TEDalton KincaidBUF5.95.5
WRTetairoa McMillanCAR12.59.6
WRGarrett WilsonNYJ14.111.0
Turbo Llamas -- expected 153.7, std dev 33.7, vs Rocket Pandas
SlotPlayerNFLExpectedStd dev
DBCooper DeJeanPHI10.25.8
DLAidan HutchinsonDET12.08.1
FLEXEmeka EgbukaTB11.89.2
FLEXCarnell TateTEN9.98.1
FLEXJadarian PriceSEA10.89.5
KEvan McPhersonCIN10.76.6
LBSonny StylesWAS9.65.5
QBJosh AllenBUF17.09.1
RBBucky IrvingTB13.411.2
RBSaquon BarkleyPHI17.814.6
TETucker KraftGB7.76.8
WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN16.812.2
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA15.411.3

one joint sample through the engine's copula over all rosters (cross-roster same-NFL-team correlation included -- the engine itself omits it, F16); every team on its max-expectation lineup; P(>= median) = share of sims at or above the median of all eight totals.

Season outlook

TeamPlayoff%Champ%Expected winsExpected points
Turbo Llamas60.813.515.72335
Polar Yetis59.318.315.52309
Quantum Ferrets58.717.615.42333
Iron Wombats46.814.113.52231
Crimson Marmots46.28.213.42225
Rocket Pandas43.610.512.92209
Neon Walruses42.88.312.82204
Cosmic Badgers41.89.512.82199
Season outcomes
Season outcomes
Cumulative win trajectories
Cumulative win trajectories
Expected wins over the simulated season
Expected wins over the simulated season
Expected wins & variance
Expected wins & variance
Roster value baseline
Roster value baseline
Head-to-head win probabilities
Head-to-head win probabilities
Seeding distribution
Seeding distribution
Weekly scoring density
Weekly scoring density

Roster grade

#TeamLineup VORPDepth VORPOptimal scoreHolesTier-1 startersStarters below replacement
1Quantum Ferrets31.30.0172.60131
2Turbo Llamas28.50.0171.40122
3Iron Wombats24.12.9168.40122
4Neon Walruses23.45.2170.50132
5Polar Yetis23.45.6162.41103
6Crimson Marmots23.01.0163.50133
7Rocket Pandas19.20.3162.00114
8Cosmic Badgers18.24.3164.01113

Quantum Ferrets by position

PositionStartersBenchStarter VORPDepth VORPBest free agent
DB100.20.0Tykee Smith (+0.7)
DL102.00.0Danielle Hunter (+0.8)
K100.70.0Jason Myers (+0.3)
LB111.10.0Zack Baun (+0.8)
QB10-0.40.0Matthew Stafford (+0.5)
RB3416.20.0Tyjae Spears (-3.1)
TE103.60.0Dallas Goedert (+1.0)
WR416.80.0Courtland Sutton (-0.9)

Lineup -- expected total 172.1

SlotPlayerPositionExpectedp10p50p90P(zero)MarginAlternative
DBKam CurlDB9.03.57.714.53%--
DLTuli TuipulotuDL11.53.89.521.02%--
FLEXJahmyr GibbsRB20.31.615.637.87%+9.1Tony Pollard
FLEXDeVonta SmithWR14.31.210.327.27%+3.1Tony Pollard
FLEXMalik NabersWR11.30.78.222.68%+0.1Tony Pollard
KHarrison MevisK11.43.510.320.20%--
LBNick BoltonLB10.54.59.218.52%+1.1Fred Warner
QBJayden DanielsQB14.94.513.225.56%--
RBBreece HallRB17.21.411.933.96%+5.9Tony Pollard
RBJavonte WilliamsRB15.70.811.230.48%+4.5Tony Pollard
TETrey McBrideTE10.71.88.522.24%--
WRLadd McConkeyWR13.00.59.224.910%+3.4Christian Watson
WRChris OlaveWR12.30.710.023.48%+2.7Christian Watson

Bench: Tony Pollard (11.2), Christian Watson (9.7), Fred Warner (9.4), Jonathon Brooks (9.3), Mike Washington (7.6), RJ Harvey (7.2)

Quantum Ferrets: boom/bust by player
Quantum Ferrets: boom/bust by player
Quantum Ferrets: floor/ceiling by player
Quantum Ferrets: floor/ceiling by player

Matchup -- vs Crimson Marmots (favoured on the engine's lineup; n=5000, cross-roster copula)

ConstructionMeanStd devP(beats opponent)± SEP(>= median)MarginMargin std dev
max_mean162.036.154.8%0.763.6%+5.549.5
safe162.036.154.8%0.763.6%+5.549.5
p_max162.036.154.8%0.763.6%+5.549.5
stack162.436.454.8%0.764.1%+5.949.7

P(beats opponent) is computed on this section's own joint sample, independent of the League table's matchup row; the two estimates differ by sampling noise (SE ~ +-0.7 points), not signal.

Best by P(beat opponent): max_mean -- changes vs max_mean: FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs -> Malik Nabers; FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs -> DeVonta Smith; RB: Breece Hall -> Javonte Williams; WR: Chris Olave -> Ladd McConkey

Opponent lineup (assumed)
SlotPlayerExpected
DBDerwin James11.6
DLMaxx Crosby10.8
FLEXHarold Fannin8.5
FLEXKenny Gainwell10.9
FLEXNico Collins13.4
KKa'imi Fairbairn10.8
LBJordyn Brooks11.7
QBJalen Hurts24.0
RBQuinshon Judkins11.0
RBDerrick Henry15.5
TESam LaPorta10.0
WRCeeDee Lamb14.2
WRGeorge Pickens13.1
Strength of schedule by fantasy roster
Strength of schedule by fantasy roster
Strength of schedule -- NFL team ranking
Strength of schedule -- NFL team ranking

Waiver targets FAAB 100 (league avg 98); holes: none; next week: none

PlayerPositionTierSeason meanVORPWeek meanp10p50p90FillsSuggested bid*Incumbent / P(beats)
Tykee SmithDB19.4+0.79.63.98.616.6upgrade3Kam Curl / 54%
Matthew StaffordQB118.1+0.517.25.316.330.0upgrade2Jayden Daniels / 61%
Tre'von MoehrigDB19.0+0.39.03.88.015.4upgrade1Kam Curl / 52%
Baker MayfieldQB118.0+0.317.25.816.030.3upgrade1Jayden Daniels / 58%
Malaki StarksDB19.0+0.38.83.57.715.4upgrade1Kam Curl / 50%

* Suggested bid = UNVERIFIED value heuristic. P(beats incumbent): sampled independently from baseline parameters: no copula (same-NFL-team correlation with the incumbent is lost), no contingency points.

Depth upgrades

Beats your worst bench player at the position (named as the natural drop), or fills an EMPTY bench behind a lone starter with positive VORP. Separated from the starter-facing ranking above; capped at three per position.

PlayerPositionTierSeason meanVORPWeek meanp10p50p90FillsSuggested bid*Incumbent / P(beats)
Dallas GoedertTE18.5+1.09.21.27.020.4depth4-
Mark AndrewsTE18.3+0.87.91.16.016.8depth3-
Danielle HunterDL29.2+0.89.22.77.517.3depth3-
Zack BaunLB111.3+0.811.75.010.720.0depth3Fred Warner / 62%
Devin LloydLB111.1+0.610.74.59.718.3depth2Fred Warner / 57%
Isaiah LikelyTE18.0+0.58.21.26.217.9depth2-
Foyesade OluokunLB110.9+0.410.54.69.517.9depth2Fred Warner / 57%
Boye MafeDL28.8+0.38.82.67.216.7depth1-
Jason MyersK111.0+0.310.33.49.018.8depth1-
Tyler LoopK111.0+0.311.23.710.220.2depth1-

Positional tiers for the positions above

Tier charts (DB, QB, TE, DL, LB, K) -- full width, open to read
DB tiers
DB tiers
QB tiers
QB tiers
TE tiers
TE tiers
DL tiers
DL tiers
LB tiers
LB tiers
K tiers
K tiers

Full ranked tables are not included in this sample.

Trade targets (seller = their Playoff_Pct below 35% in the season export supplied)

FromTargetBuried behindSlotI giveI getMy gainTheir gainAcceptablePlayoff%SellerWillingness
Cosmic BadgersDak PrescottJared GoffQBChristian WatsonDak Prescott+1.1-0.7no42no0.4
Neon WalrusesCaleb WilliamsLamar JacksonQBTony PollardCaleb Williams+1.0-0.5no43no0.85
Polar YetisTrevor LawrenceJustin HerbertQBKam Curl, Mike WashingtonTrevor Lawrence, Alec Pierce-6.2-0.8no59no0.6
Rocket PandasBrock PurdyJoe BurrowQBKam CurlBrock Purdy-7.1+4.5no44no0.8
Iron WombatsDrake MayeJaxson DartQBTuli TuipulotuDrake Maye-7.6+1.3no47no0.05
Cosmic BadgersDak PrescottJared GoffQBTuli TuipulotuDak Prescott-8.3+1.7no42no0.4
Iron WombatsDrake MayeJaxson DartQBTrey McBrideDrake Maye-8.3-0.2no47no0.05
Neon WalrusesCaleb WilliamsLamar JacksonQBTuli TuipulotuCaleb Williams-8.3-0.6no43no0.85
Polar YetisTrevor LawrenceJustin HerbertQBTrey McBride, Mike WashingtonTrevor Lawrence, Alec Pierce-8.3-0.3no59no0.6
Rocket PandasBrock PurdyJoe BurrowQBTuli TuipulotuBrock Purdy-8.5+0.0no44no0.8

Sell side

FromTargetI giveI getMy gainTheir gain
Crimson MarmotsTony PollardTony Pollard, Christian WatsonJalen Hurts, Seth McGowan+3.8-18.2
Neon WalrusesTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonJack Campbell, Caleb Douglas+1.5-2.5
Turbo LlamasTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonAidan Hutchinson, TreVeyon Henderson+1.3-10.3
Crimson MarmotsTony PollardTony Pollard, Christian WatsonDerwin James, Seth McGowan+0.6-7.5
Cosmic BadgersTony PollardTony Pollard, Christian WatsonChamarri Conner, Tyrone Tracy+0.4-7.9
Rocket PandasTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonNakobe Dean, Travis Hunter+0.4-7.7
Turbo LlamasTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonCooper DeJean, TreVeyon Henderson+0.3-8.0
Rocket PandasTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonJake Bates, Travis Hunter+0.1-12.8
Neon WalrusesTony PollardTony Pollard, Mike WashingtonNick Cross, Caleb Douglas-0.0-7.7
Cosmic BadgersTony PollardTony Pollard, Christian WatsonBrandon Aubrey, Tyrone Tracy-0.5-9.1

Decision log week 1, 30 transaction(s)

Illustrative only: the transactions in this section are invented for this sample report so the section renders; the real league's decision log is deliberately not published.

DateTeamTypeAddedDroppedBidMineSnapshotEvaluation
2026-09-15Quantum FerretswaiverTyjae Spears (8.6)Roschon Johnson (5.1)9yes0.10dChamp +0.40+-0.60 / PO +0.90+-1.10
2026-09-15Cosmic Badgersfree_agentTommy Tremble (4.9)--0.30dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx sample-2
2026-09-11Cosmic BadgerswaiverJalen Coker (8.6)Dylan Sampson (4.5)5retro +3.6dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1404137249158766592
2026-09-10Polar Yetisfree_agentQuentin Johnston (9.1)--retro +4.5dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1403813924138131456
2026-09-09Turbo Llamasfree_agentCooper DeJean (9.6)Nick Emmanwori (9.8)-retro +5.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1403551184706408448
2026-09-09Neon Walrusesfree_agentCaleb Douglas (5.2)Devaughn Vele (7.6)-retro +6.0dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1403244864652443648
2026-09-09Neon Walrusesfree_agentDevaughn Vele (7.6)Xavier Watts (8.2)-retro +6.0dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1403243149224058880
2026-09-08Turbo Llamasfree_agentKC Concepcion (7.2)--retro +6.3dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1403160634668945408
2026-09-05Turbo Llamasfree_agentNick Emmanwori (9.8)Dillon Thieneman (6.8)-retro +9.4dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1402036295101902848
2026-09-03Cosmic BadgerstradeTyrone Tracy (3.9), Josh Jacobs (13.0)Tyrone Tracy (3.9), Josh Jacobs (13.0)-retro +11.4dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1401311203212468234
2026-09-03Polar Yetisfree_agent-Nik Bonitto (9.0)-retro +11.6dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1401228656092672000
2026-09-02Crimson Marmotsfree_agentSeth McGowan (2.3)Matthew Golden (8.2)-retro +13.1dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1400689688859115520
2026-09-01Quantum Ferretsfree_agentNick Bolton (11.6)Courtland Sutton (9.1)-yesretro +13.4dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1400584476119035904
2026-09-01Quantum Ferretsfree_agentTuli Tuipulotu (10.4)Danielle Hunter (9.2)-yesretro +13.4dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1400576987495436288
2026-09-01Quantum Ferretsfree_agentHarrison Mevis (11.3)Jason Myers (11.0)-yesretro +13.4dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1400573157206695936
2026-08-30Turbo Llamasfree_agentMarShawn Lloyd (10.2)KC Concepcion (7.2)-retro +15.3dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1399877541182906368
2026-08-26Crimson MarmotswaiverMatthew Golden (8.2)Jalen Coker (8.6)1retro +19.5dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1398361961682460672
2026-08-26Crimson MarmotswaiverRachaad White (7.7)Nick Emmanwori (9.8)1retro +19.5dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1398361810620444672
2026-08-26Crimson Marmotsfree_agentAaron Jones (8.5)Najee Harris-retro +20.1dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1398154056123342848
2026-08-24Crimson Marmotsfree_agentStefon Diggs (7.7)Nicholas Singleton-retro +21.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397747359248551936
2026-08-24Crimson Marmotsfree_agentJosh Downs (8.4)Malachi Fields (6.0)-retro +21.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397747091014475776
2026-08-24Rocket PandaswaiverJ.K. Dobbins (9.0)Isaiah Likely (8.0)5retro +21.7dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397577139829641216
2026-08-23Quantum Ferretsfree_agentMike Washington (6.6)J.K. Dobbins (9.0)-yesretro +22.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397391926667300864
2026-08-23Turbo Llamasfree_agent-Byron Young (9.8)-retro +22.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397391443080830976
2026-08-23Rocket Pandasfree_agentNakobe Dean (12.2)Abdul Carter (8.4)-retro +23.1dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397069883019145216
2026-08-23Turbo Llamasfree_agentKC Concepcion (7.2)--retro +23.1dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397053504576577536
2026-08-23Crimson Marmotsfree_agentNajee Harris--retro +23.1dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397044844525834240
2026-08-22Polar Yetisfree_agentChase McLaughlin (10.3)--retro +23.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397041528521637888
2026-08-22Turbo Llamasfree_agentEvan McPherson (10.7)--retro +23.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397041026853519360
2026-08-22Rocket Pandasfree_agentJake Bates (11.7)--retro +23.2dunevaluated -- py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --log-tx 1397040791993503744

Frozen snapshots are contemporaneous only for moves made after the log's first ingestion: 1 of my 5 and 1 league move(s) this week; the 28 retro-flagged row(s) were backfilled -- their projections were never a record of what the model thought at decision time (F18). Evaluations are paired simulations under CURRENT projections. Catch up: py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --evaluate-unevaluated [--mine-only]