Sanitized sample. Team names are fictional; NFL players and projections are real, from a live data pull on 2026-09-15. League identifiers and the real decision log are not published. Generated by scripts/make_sample_report.py.
Sync for week 1 completed 2026-09-15T03:37:33Z UTC (129 routine notices).
DEGRADED -- the sync tolerated these failures
WARNING | NAME COLLISION: 'Justin Jefferson' is pid 13524 (LB, CLE), pid 6794 (WR, MIN). pid 6794 is rostered and keeps the plain name; the rest are stored as 'Name (pid)'.
WARNING | NAME COLLISION: 'DeVonta Smith' is pid 13977 (CB, CAR), pid 7525 (WR, PHI). pid 7525 is rostered and keeps the plain name; the rest are stored as 'Name (pid)'.
WARNING | NAME COLLISION: 'Lamar Jackson' is pid 4881 (QB, BAL), pid 6994 (CB, None). pid 4881 is rostered and keeps the plain name; the rest are stored as 'Name (pid)'.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'TreVeyon Henderson' (RB, NE) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection (injury_status=Out, on_ir=True); CARRIED the previous sync's baseline mean 4.50 as his healthy-week expectation. He enters the engine through F4's absence handling if his status warrants it, not at full strength.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'Chamarri Conner' (DB, KC) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection (injury_status=Out, on_ir=False); CARRIED the previous sync's baseline mean 10.11 as his healthy-week expectation. He enters the engine through F4's absence handling if his status warrants it, not at full strength.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'Jordyn Tyson' (WR, NO) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection; covered by KNOWN_MISSING_ASSETS -- the engine imputes the whitelisted baseline.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'Josh Jacobs' (RB, GB) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection (injury_status=NA, on_ir=True); CARRIED the previous sync's baseline mean 12.98 as his healthy-week expectation. He enters the engine through F4's absence handling if his status warrants it, not at full strength.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'Zach Charbonnet' (RB, SEA) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection (injury_status=PUP, on_ir=True); CARRIED the previous sync's baseline mean 2.98 as his healthy-week expectation. He enters the engine through F4's absence handling if his status warrants it, not at full strength.
WARNING | BASELINES: rostered player 'Brock Bowers' (TE, LV) has a zero/empty Sleeper projection (injury_status=Out, on_ir=False); CARRIED the previous sync's baseline mean 12.66 as his healthy-week expectation. He enters the engine through F4's absence handling if his status warrants it, not at full strength.
WARNING | BASELINES: 32 entries have positions with no calibrated constants and use the anonymous defaults (k=1.5, rate=0.18): {'DEF': 32}
WARNING | VEGAS (week 1): 32 teams had no usable line and got the flat 21.5 / no-opponent fallback: ARI, ATL, BAL, BUF, CAR, CHI, CIN, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GB, HOU, IND, JAX, KC, LAC, LAR, LV, MIA, MIN, NE, NO, NYG, NYJ, PHI, PIT, SEA, SF, TB, TEN, WAS
WARNING | DEPTH WATCHDOG: DAL backup RBs -- depth chart says 'Hunter Luepke' (depth 3, mean 1.4) but baseline means say 'Emari Demercado' (depth 5, mean 5.0). Vacated-volume weighting follows the MEANS (F24: measured correct on 2025 events); judge this case by hand if that backfield's lead goes down.
WARNING | DEPTH WATCHDOG: SEA backup RBs -- depth chart says 'Zach Charbonnet' (depth 2, mean 3.0) but baseline means say 'George Holani' (depth 4, mean 5.2). Vacated-volume weighting follows the MEANS (F24: measured correct on 2025 events); judge this case by hand if that backfield's lead goes down.
League this week -- all matchups (n=5000, cross-roster copula)
Matchup
P(A wins)
P(B wins)
± SE
A expected
B expected
Margin std dev
Neon Walruses v Polar Yetis
56.9%
43.1%
0.7
150.7
143.4
47.6
Rocket Pandas v Turbo Llamas
48.7%
51.3%
0.7
151.8
153.7
47.6
Cosmic Badgers v Iron Wombats
36.6%
63.4%
0.7
133.6
149.1
45.2
Quantum Ferrets v Crimson Marmots
55.1%
44.9%
0.7
161.9
155.5
49.7
Team
Opponent
P(>= median)
Expected
Std dev
Quantum Ferrets
Crimson Marmots
63.2%
161.9
37.2
Crimson Marmots
Quantum Ferrets
57.7%
155.5
33.6
Turbo Llamas
Rocket Pandas
55.0%
153.7
33.7
Rocket Pandas
Turbo Llamas
52.2%
151.8
34.3
Neon Walruses
Polar Yetis
50.3%
150.7
33.0
Iron Wombats
Cosmic Badgers
49.3%
149.1
32.6
Polar Yetis
Neon Walruses
41.6%
143.4
34.4
Cosmic Badgers
Iron Wombats
30.7%
133.6
31.5
Assumed optimal lineups (max-expectation, the engine's rule)
Quantum Ferrets -- expected 161.9, std dev 37.2, vs Crimson Marmots
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Kam Curl
LAR
9.0
5.3
DL
Tuli Tuipulotu
LAC
11.5
7.9
FLEX
Malik Nabers
NYG
11.3
9.2
FLEX
DeVonta Smith
PHI
14.3
11.2
FLEX
Jahmyr Gibbs
DET
20.3
15.6
K
Harrison Mevis
LAR
11.4
6.9
LB
Nick Bolton
KC
10.5
5.8
QB
Jayden Daniels
WAS
14.9
8.2
RB
Javonte Williams
DAL
15.7
12.9
RB
Breece Hall
NYJ
17.2
14.2
TE
Trey McBride
ARI
10.7
8.6
WR
Ladd McConkey
LAC
13.0
10.2
WR
Chris Olave
NO
12.3
9.3
Cosmic Badgers -- expected 133.6, std dev 31.5, vs Iron Wombats
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DL
Nick Bosa
SF
7.3
5.9
FLEX
Rhamondre Stevenson
NE
11.6
9.6
FLEX
Kenneth Walker
KC
10.9
9.5
FLEX
Puka Nacua
LAR
17.4
12.7
K
Brandon Aubrey
DAL
11.8
7.1
LB
Roquan Smith
BAL
11.8
6.2
QB
Dak Prescott
DAL
18.4
9.9
RB
D'Andre Swift
CHI
12.1
10.3
RB
Travis Etienne
NO
13.6
11.2
TE
Kyle Pitts
ATL
6.8
5.9
WR
Rome Odunze
CHI
10.2
8.1
WR
DK Metcalf
PIT
10.4
8.7
Crimson Marmots -- expected 155.5, std dev 33.6, vs Quantum Ferrets
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Derwin James
LAC
11.6
6.2
DL
Maxx Crosby
LV
10.8
7.6
FLEX
Harold Fannin
CLE
8.5
7.1
FLEX
Kenny Gainwell
TB
10.9
9.6
FLEX
Nico Collins
HOU
13.4
10.2
K
Ka'imi Fairbairn
HOU
10.8
6.6
LB
Jordyn Brooks
MIA
11.7
6.6
QB
Jalen Hurts
PHI
24.0
12.7
RB
Quinshon Judkins
CLE
11.0
9.3
RB
Derrick Henry
BAL
15.5
13.0
TE
Sam LaPorta
DET
10.0
7.9
WR
CeeDee Lamb
DAL
14.2
10.5
WR
George Pickens
DAL
13.1
10.1
Iron Wombats -- expected 149.1, std dev 32.6, vs Cosmic Badgers
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Kyle Hamilton
BAL
10.9
5.7
DL
Jared Verse
CLE
8.0
6.3
FLEX
Jeremiyah Love
ARI
10.9
9.8
FLEX
Chris Godwin
TB
9.3
7.8
FLEX
Jonathan Taylor
IND
16.0
12.9
K
Cameron Dicker
LAC
12.2
7.4
LB
Carson Schwesinger
CLE
10.8
6.1
QB
Jaxson Dart
NYG
20.3
10.6
RB
Rico Dowdle
PIT
12.0
10.1
RB
Bijan Robinson
ATL
15.1
12.2
TE
Tyler Warren
IND
10.0
8.0
WR
Tee Higgins
CIN
12.4
9.6
WR
Drake London
ATL
10.1
8.1
Neon Walruses -- expected 150.7, std dev 33.0, vs Polar Yetis
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Nick Cross
WAS
8.4
4.7
DL
Brian Burns
NYG
11.0
7.8
FLEX
Bhayshul Tuten
JAX
10.3
9.1
FLEX
Jaylen Waddle
DEN
10.3
8.4
FLEX
De'Von Achane
MIA
17.7
14.0
K
Cam Little
JAX
11.2
6.7
LB
Jack Campbell
DET
13.2
6.9
QB
Lamar Jackson
BAL
20.0
10.3
RB
Christian McCaffrey
SF
15.7
12.8
RB
David Montgomery
HOU
13.0
11.0
TE
Jake Ferguson
DAL
7.6
6.9
WR
Davante Adams
LAR
11.3
9.0
WR
Jameson Williams
DET
11.2
8.9
Polar Yetis -- expected 143.4, std dev 34.4, vs Neon Walruses
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Caleb Downs
DAL
9.0
5.2
DL
Will Anderson
HOU
9.3
6.8
FLEX
Rashee Rice
KC
9.4
7.7
FLEX
Chase Brown
CIN
14.6
12.3
FLEX
Quentin Johnston
LAC
10.6
8.9
K
Chase McLaughlin
TB
10.6
6.4
QB
Justin Herbert
LAC
21.7
11.6
RB
Cam Skattebo
NYG
14.0
11.7
RB
Kyren Williams
LAR
13.2
11.2
TE
Colston Loveland
CHI
10.6
8.8
WR
Justin Jefferson
MIN
13.7
10.1
WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown
DET
16.1
11.8
Rocket Pandas -- expected 151.8, std dev 34.3, vs Turbo Llamas
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Travis Hunter
JAX
3.0
2.8
DL
T.J. Watt
PIT
10.0
5.8
FLEX
Chuba Hubbard
CAR
10.5
9.6
FLEX
James Cook
BUF
12.8
10.6
FLEX
Jaylen Warren
PIT
12.1
10.3
K
Jake Bates
DET
11.8
7.0
LB
Nakobe Dean
LV
13.3
7.1
QB
Joe Burrow
CIN
20.0
10.8
RB
Omarion Hampton
LAC
17.7
14.3
RB
Ashton Jeanty
LV
17.6
14.2
TE
Dalton Kincaid
BUF
5.9
5.5
WR
Tetairoa McMillan
CAR
12.5
9.6
WR
Garrett Wilson
NYJ
14.1
11.0
Turbo Llamas -- expected 153.7, std dev 33.7, vs Rocket Pandas
Slot
Player
NFL
Expected
Std dev
DB
Cooper DeJean
PHI
10.2
5.8
DL
Aidan Hutchinson
DET
12.0
8.1
FLEX
Emeka Egbuka
TB
11.8
9.2
FLEX
Carnell Tate
TEN
9.9
8.1
FLEX
Jadarian Price
SEA
10.8
9.5
K
Evan McPherson
CIN
10.7
6.6
LB
Sonny Styles
WAS
9.6
5.5
QB
Josh Allen
BUF
17.0
9.1
RB
Bucky Irving
TB
13.4
11.2
RB
Saquon Barkley
PHI
17.8
14.6
TE
Tucker Kraft
GB
7.7
6.8
WR
Ja'Marr Chase
CIN
16.8
12.2
WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA
15.4
11.3
one joint sample through the engine's copula over all rosters (cross-roster same-NFL-team correlation included -- the engine itself omits it, F16); every team on its max-expectation lineup; P(>= median) = share of sims at or above the median of all eight totals.
Season outlook
Team
Playoff%
Champ%
Expected wins
Expected points
Turbo Llamas
60.8
13.5
15.7
2335
Polar Yetis
59.3
18.3
15.5
2309
Quantum Ferrets
58.7
17.6
15.4
2333
Iron Wombats
46.8
14.1
13.5
2231
Crimson Marmots
46.2
8.2
13.4
2225
Rocket Pandas
43.6
10.5
12.9
2209
Neon Walruses
42.8
8.3
12.8
2204
Cosmic Badgers
41.8
9.5
12.8
2199
Season outcomesCumulative win trajectoriesExpected wins over the simulated seasonExpected wins & varianceRoster value baselineHead-to-head win probabilitiesSeeding distributionWeekly scoring density
Roster grade
#
Team
Lineup VORP
Depth VORP
Optimal score
Holes
Tier-1 starters
Starters below replacement
1
Quantum Ferrets
31.3
0.0
172.6
0
13
1
2
Turbo Llamas
28.5
0.0
171.4
0
12
2
3
Iron Wombats
24.1
2.9
168.4
0
12
2
4
Neon Walruses
23.4
5.2
170.5
0
13
2
5
Polar Yetis
23.4
5.6
162.4
1
10
3
6
Crimson Marmots
23.0
1.0
163.5
0
13
3
7
Rocket Pandas
19.2
0.3
162.0
0
11
4
8
Cosmic Badgers
18.2
4.3
164.0
1
11
3
Quantum Ferrets by position
Position
Starters
Bench
Starter VORP
Depth VORP
Best free agent
DB
1
0
0.2
0.0
Tykee Smith (+0.7)
DL
1
0
2.0
0.0
Danielle Hunter (+0.8)
K
1
0
0.7
0.0
Jason Myers (+0.3)
LB
1
1
1.1
0.0
Zack Baun (+0.8)
QB
1
0
-0.4
0.0
Matthew Stafford (+0.5)
RB
3
4
16.2
0.0
Tyjae Spears (-3.1)
TE
1
0
3.6
0.0
Dallas Goedert (+1.0)
WR
4
1
6.8
0.0
Courtland Sutton (-0.9)
Lineup -- expected total 172.1
Slot
Player
Position
Expected
p10
p50
p90
P(zero)
Margin
Alternative
DB
Kam Curl
DB
9.0
3.5
7.7
14.5
3%
-
-
DL
Tuli Tuipulotu
DL
11.5
3.8
9.5
21.0
2%
-
-
FLEX
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB
20.3
1.6
15.6
37.8
7%
+9.1
Tony Pollard
FLEX
DeVonta Smith
WR
14.3
1.2
10.3
27.2
7%
+3.1
Tony Pollard
FLEX
Malik Nabers
WR
11.3
0.7
8.2
22.6
8%
+0.1
Tony Pollard
K
Harrison Mevis
K
11.4
3.5
10.3
20.2
0%
-
-
LB
Nick Bolton
LB
10.5
4.5
9.2
18.5
2%
+1.1
Fred Warner
QB
Jayden Daniels
QB
14.9
4.5
13.2
25.5
6%
-
-
RB
Breece Hall
RB
17.2
1.4
11.9
33.9
6%
+5.9
Tony Pollard
RB
Javonte Williams
RB
15.7
0.8
11.2
30.4
8%
+4.5
Tony Pollard
TE
Trey McBride
TE
10.7
1.8
8.5
22.2
4%
-
-
WR
Ladd McConkey
WR
13.0
0.5
9.2
24.9
10%
+3.4
Christian Watson
WR
Chris Olave
WR
12.3
0.7
10.0
23.4
8%
+2.7
Christian Watson
Bench: Tony Pollard (11.2), Christian Watson (9.7), Fred Warner (9.4), Jonathon Brooks (9.3), Mike Washington (7.6), RJ Harvey (7.2)
Quantum Ferrets: boom/bust by playerQuantum Ferrets: floor/ceiling by player
Matchup -- vs Crimson Marmots (favoured on the engine's lineup; n=5000, cross-roster copula)
Construction
Mean
Std dev
P(beats opponent)
± SE
P(>= median)
Margin
Margin std dev
max_mean
162.0
36.1
54.8%
0.7
63.6%
+5.5
49.5
safe
162.0
36.1
54.8%
0.7
63.6%
+5.5
49.5
p_max
162.0
36.1
54.8%
0.7
63.6%
+5.5
49.5
stack
162.4
36.4
54.8%
0.7
64.1%
+5.9
49.7
P(beats opponent) is computed on this section's own joint sample, independent of the League table's matchup row; the two estimates differ by sampling noise (SE ~ +-0.7 points), not signal.
Best by P(beat opponent): max_mean -- changes vs max_mean: FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs -> Malik Nabers; FLEX: Jahmyr Gibbs -> DeVonta Smith; RB: Breece Hall -> Javonte Williams; WR: Chris Olave -> Ladd McConkey
Opponent lineup (assumed)
Slot
Player
Expected
DB
Derwin James
11.6
DL
Maxx Crosby
10.8
FLEX
Harold Fannin
8.5
FLEX
Kenny Gainwell
10.9
FLEX
Nico Collins
13.4
K
Ka'imi Fairbairn
10.8
LB
Jordyn Brooks
11.7
QB
Jalen Hurts
24.0
RB
Quinshon Judkins
11.0
RB
Derrick Henry
15.5
TE
Sam LaPorta
10.0
WR
CeeDee Lamb
14.2
WR
George Pickens
13.1
Strength of schedule by fantasy rosterStrength of schedule -- NFL team ranking
* Suggested bid = UNVERIFIED value heuristic. P(beats incumbent): sampled independently from baseline parameters: no copula (same-NFL-team correlation with the incumbent is lost), no contingency points.
Depth upgrades
Beats your worst bench player at the position (named as the natural drop), or fills an EMPTY bench behind a lone starter with positive VORP. Separated from the starter-facing ranking above; capped at three per position.
Player
Position
Tier
Season mean
VORP
Week mean
p10
p50
p90
Fills
Suggested bid*
Incumbent / P(beats)
Dallas Goedert
TE
1
8.5
+1.0
9.2
1.2
7.0
20.4
depth
4
-
Mark Andrews
TE
1
8.3
+0.8
7.9
1.1
6.0
16.8
depth
3
-
Danielle Hunter
DL
2
9.2
+0.8
9.2
2.7
7.5
17.3
depth
3
-
Zack Baun
LB
1
11.3
+0.8
11.7
5.0
10.7
20.0
depth
3
Fred Warner / 62%
Devin Lloyd
LB
1
11.1
+0.6
10.7
4.5
9.7
18.3
depth
2
Fred Warner / 57%
Isaiah Likely
TE
1
8.0
+0.5
8.2
1.2
6.2
17.9
depth
2
-
Foyesade Oluokun
LB
1
10.9
+0.4
10.5
4.6
9.5
17.9
depth
2
Fred Warner / 57%
Boye Mafe
DL
2
8.8
+0.3
8.8
2.6
7.2
16.7
depth
1
-
Jason Myers
K
1
11.0
+0.3
10.3
3.4
9.0
18.8
depth
1
-
Tyler Loop
K
1
11.0
+0.3
11.2
3.7
10.2
20.2
depth
1
-
Positional tiers for the positions above
Tier charts (DB, QB, TE, DL, LB, K) -- full width, open to read
DB tiersQB tiersTE tiersDL tiersLB tiersK tiers
Full ranked tables are not included in this sample.
Trade targets (seller = their Playoff_Pct below 35% in the season export supplied)
From
Target
Buried behind
Slot
I give
I get
My gain
Their gain
Acceptable
Playoff%
Seller
Willingness
Cosmic Badgers
Dak Prescott
Jared Goff
QB
Christian Watson
Dak Prescott
+1.1
-0.7
no
42
no
0.4
Neon Walruses
Caleb Williams
Lamar Jackson
QB
Tony Pollard
Caleb Williams
+1.0
-0.5
no
43
no
0.85
Polar Yetis
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Herbert
QB
Kam Curl, Mike Washington
Trevor Lawrence, Alec Pierce
-6.2
-0.8
no
59
no
0.6
Rocket Pandas
Brock Purdy
Joe Burrow
QB
Kam Curl
Brock Purdy
-7.1
+4.5
no
44
no
0.8
Iron Wombats
Drake Maye
Jaxson Dart
QB
Tuli Tuipulotu
Drake Maye
-7.6
+1.3
no
47
no
0.05
Cosmic Badgers
Dak Prescott
Jared Goff
QB
Tuli Tuipulotu
Dak Prescott
-8.3
+1.7
no
42
no
0.4
Iron Wombats
Drake Maye
Jaxson Dart
QB
Trey McBride
Drake Maye
-8.3
-0.2
no
47
no
0.05
Neon Walruses
Caleb Williams
Lamar Jackson
QB
Tuli Tuipulotu
Caleb Williams
-8.3
-0.6
no
43
no
0.85
Polar Yetis
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Herbert
QB
Trey McBride, Mike Washington
Trevor Lawrence, Alec Pierce
-8.3
-0.3
no
59
no
0.6
Rocket Pandas
Brock Purdy
Joe Burrow
QB
Tuli Tuipulotu
Brock Purdy
-8.5
+0.0
no
44
no
0.8
Sell side
From
Target
I give
I get
My gain
Their gain
Crimson Marmots
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Christian Watson
Jalen Hurts, Seth McGowan
+3.8
-18.2
Neon Walruses
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Jack Campbell, Caleb Douglas
+1.5
-2.5
Turbo Llamas
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Aidan Hutchinson, TreVeyon Henderson
+1.3
-10.3
Crimson Marmots
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Christian Watson
Derwin James, Seth McGowan
+0.6
-7.5
Cosmic Badgers
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Christian Watson
Chamarri Conner, Tyrone Tracy
+0.4
-7.9
Rocket Pandas
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Nakobe Dean, Travis Hunter
+0.4
-7.7
Turbo Llamas
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Cooper DeJean, TreVeyon Henderson
+0.3
-8.0
Rocket Pandas
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Jake Bates, Travis Hunter
+0.1
-12.8
Neon Walruses
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Mike Washington
Nick Cross, Caleb Douglas
-0.0
-7.7
Cosmic Badgers
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, Christian Watson
Brandon Aubrey, Tyrone Tracy
-0.5
-9.1
Decision log week 1, 30 transaction(s)
Illustrative only: the transactions in this section are invented for this sample report so the section renders; the real league's decision log is deliberately not published.
Frozen snapshots are contemporaneous only for moves made after the log's first ingestion: 1 of my 5 and 1 league move(s) this week; the 28 retro-flagged row(s) were backfilled -- their projections were never a record of what the model thought at decision time (F18). Evaluations are paired simulations under CURRENT projections. Catch up: py -3.10 -m scripts.evaluate_move --evaluate-unevaluated [--mine-only]